The attack on tourists in Kashmir calls into question the success of Modi's policies

Before the bloody attack on tourists in Kashmir, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi boasted that his policies had restored stability in the region. He cited the years-long increase in tourist numbers to the Himalayan valley as evidence. However, the massacre on an idyllic mountain meadow has now led to an exodus of holidaymakers and called into question Modi's narrative of a return to normalcy. More than ever, the question of how to bring lasting peace to Kashmir is pressing.

In the attack last Tuesday, four terrorists shot dead 26 people at a picturesque tourist destination. Almost a week later, the perpetrators are still on the run. Indian media reported that security forces have sighted them four times since the attack. There was even a brief firefight in southern Kashmir, but the group managed to escape in the inaccessible and densely forested mountain region.

This increases the pressure on Modi to respond militarily to the attack. Shortly afterward, the Prime Minister had already blamed arch-enemy Pakistan and threatened that India would pursue the perpetrators "to the ends of the earth." In an initial response, Delhi only decided on a series of political sanctions. Given the heated atmosphere in India, however, it still seems possible that Modi will opt for a military strike against Pakistan.

Regardless of the further course of action, the attack calls into question the success of Modi's policies in Kashmir. In 2019, the Hindu nationalist, in a controversial move, repealed Article 370 of the Constitution, which had guaranteed Kashmir a special autonomous status since independence in 1947. The predominantly Muslim region was thus downgraded from an independent state to a union territory and placed under the direct control of the central government in Delhi.

Although elections were held in Kashmir in October for the first time in six years, the regional government's powers remain limited. For example, responsibility for security matters still lies with the governor, appointed by Modi. Omar Abdullah's regional government in Srinagar is considered weak, and many Kashmiris feel humiliated by Delhi and deprived of their right to participate in decision-making.

The change in land purchase laws has raised fears that Modi's government is seeking to resettle more Hindus from outside Kashmir and change the valley's demographic composition. The Resistance Front, which claimed responsibility for the attack on the tourists last week, justified the attack by arguing that hundreds of thousands of foreigners have been resettled in Kashmir since 2019.

Although popular support for the separatist groups has declined, many Kashmiris continue to find the army's massive presence oppressive. Since the beginning of the uprising in 1989, its often ruthless actions have driven many locals into the separatists' arms. Even after the attack, the security forces demonstrated that they are not bound by the law. They blew up several homes belonging to suspects allegedly linked to terrorist groups.

In addition to the homes of men believed to have been directly involved in the attack, families whose sons had joined the separatists years or even decades ago were also hit. The nine explosions also damaged the homes of uninvolved neighbors. Initially, it was unclear who was behind the nighttime blasts. But over the weekend, it emerged that it was none other than the security forces.

In Kashmir, where the attack on the tourists had sparked horror and outrage, the action sparked resentment. Kashmir's Chief Minister Omar Abdullah warned that such misplaced actions threatened to alienate Kashmiris and squander their support in the fight against terror. "Punish those responsible, show no mercy, but don't let innocent people become collateral damage," Abdullah said.

Other politicians also warned against collective punishment of the population. It creates the impression that "the entire family should be punished for the actions of a single member," said a local opposition politician. Former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti criticized the arrest of thousands and the destruction of ordinary people's homes. She warned that the Indian government must clearly distinguish between terrorists and civilians.

In India, the destruction of suspects' homes is widespread. In November, the Supreme Court sharply rebuked this form of "bulldozer justice." In their ruling, the judges established strict rules for the demolition of houses and made it clear that punishing suspects and their families without prior trial was a clear violation of the constitution. The ruling, however, had little impact on the authorities, who continue the practice.

By blowing up the houses in Kashmir, the security forces are inadvertently challenging the government's narrative that Pakistan was responsible for the attack. If the perpetrators are from Kashmir, then the terror is not imported, but originates in the valley itself. By blatantly illegally destroying the houses, the security forces also demonstrated why so many Kashmiris complain about the army's presence.

In the short term, the government's priority is to bring the perpetrators to justice and retaliate for the attack. However, if it wants to bring long-term peace to Kashmir, it will also have to address the causes of the violence. Blaming Pakistan exclusively for the violence may be politically expedient, writes the International Crisis Group think tank. However, to bring lasting peace to the region, the government should also address the concerns, anger, and feelings of alienation among the population.