Military power Germany? What would have to happen here for that to happen

Vilnius/Berlin. As the Berlin journalists were recently taken from the airport in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius to Cathedral Square in the heart of the capital, the press officer listed what the troops had planned in the small Baltic country. This included: Eurofighter, the A400M troop transport, CH53, NH90, and Tiger helicopters. Then he takes a deep breath and names other weapons from the animal-name category: the Leopard 2 main battle tank, the Puma infantry fighting vehicle, the Dachs armored personnel carrier, the Leguan armoured bridge-laying vehicle, the Boxer wheeled armored vehicle, the Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzer, the Fennek reconnaissance vehicle, the Dingo armored wheeled vehicle, and—last but not least—the Eagle all-terrain vehicle.

Many of the weapons soon "adorn" three sides of the square. Adults climb around on them. A woman climbs into the hatch at the top, turns toward her male companion, waves a small German-Lithuanian paper flag, and forms two fingers in the victory sign. The snapshot is complete. Children are there too, many children, hardly less enthusiastic than the adults. A little girl has put on a uniform herself. Despite all the understanding of the international threat, this still seems a bit spooky.

Passersby climb onto a German Bundeswehr PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer during the inauguration ceremony of the German brigade on Cathedral Square. The 45th German Armored Brigade Lithuania was officially inaugurated during a ceremony on Cathedral Square in Vilnius.

Source: IMAGO/ZUMA Press Wire

They all appeared for the roll call of the 5,000-strong Bundeswehr brigade, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, which is to be stationed in the country until 2027 and, in the event of an emergency, will fight alongside the Lithuanians. After all, Lithuania is wedged between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and the vassal state of Belarus and could one day find itself in serious militarily dire straits. The German soldiers appear ready, strong, and motivated.

The question being much discussed, not only in Berlin, is whether this actually applies in general and what needs to happen to make the Chancellor's announcement come true. He recently said in the Bundestag that the Bundeswehr must become Europe's strongest conventional army. Because currently it is not. In terms of expenditure, Germany ranks third behind Russia and Great Britain. According to the "Global Firepower Index," which takes into account not only the budget but also personnel strength and equipment, Germany ranks only seventh. What the Inspector of the Army said after Russia's attack on Ukraine is unforgettable. Alfons Mais declared at the time that the German armed forces were effectively "empty."

Similar voices can be heard two days before the roll call in Lithuania at the final annual reception of the outgoing Parliamentary Commissioner for the Armed Forces, Eva Högl, at the Rhineland-Palatinate State Representation in the heart of Berlin. There is music, Palatinate wine, and generals' uniforms that are sometimes a little tight across the stomach. One uniformed officer says: "We're more than we can muster." An observer who is quite familiar with the troops states that they suffer from bloated personnel at the top and too much bureaucracy. If this can be changed, things could improve. Otherwise, the learning effect will probably only occur in the event of war. The Federal Audit Office has just reached a similar conclusion. It sees too many desk soldiers.

Certainly, the Bundeswehr is now flush with cash, at least in theory. The old Bundestag amended the Basic Law to allow all military spending exceeding one percent of economic output to be financed through debt. One percent – ​​that's about 45 billion euros, almost as much as the regular defense budget.

Spending is soon to be increased to five percent of gross domestic product, with only 3.5 percent going to the military in the narrower sense. That would still be over 150 billion euros, three times the current amount. Per year!

However, there are significant shortcomings in other areas. First, there is the material, significant portions of which the Bundeswehr recently handed over to Ukraine. This must be replaced. Furthermore, experts believe modernization is urgently needed. Tanks are essentially yesterday's news, they say. In the future, the focus will primarily be on air defense and combat drones, which are dominating the war in Ukraine and which the Bundeswehr does not currently possess. The upgrade requires a considerable amount of time for planning, production, and coordination with allies.

"Creating Europe's strongest conventional army is of course possible," says Hans-Christoph Atzpodien by phone from London. He is the Managing Director of the Federation of German Security and Defense Industries. "But certain conditions must be met for this to happen." The money is, in principle, available thanks to the amendment to the Basic Law. However, the concrete investments are difficult to implement under the current provisional budget management. "So we need either a valid federal budget soon or resolutions from the Budget Committee that could replace it, at least in the area of ​​defense," explains Atzpodien.

"Moreover, the timeframe until the planned implementation in 2029 is so short that we need announcements about the requirements soon, ideally coordinated with our European partners." 2029 is considered the year in which Russia should be able to attack NATO. And that would be "practically tomorrow," says the association representative.

Dr. Hans Christoph Atzpodien, Managing Director of the Federal Association of the German Security and Defence Industry

Source: IMAGO/Sven Simon

Finally, procurement rules must be streamlined, as stipulated in the coalition agreement. This includes simplifying procurement law and accelerating security screening of employees by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. To create the necessary capacity, Atzpodien proposes reallocating production capacity in the struggling automotive industry. This would no longer mean "swords into plowshares," but rather "passenger cars into tanks."

Much more serious – everyone agrees – are the personnel challenges. Few understand this better than André Wüstner. He is chairman of the German Bundeswehr Association, the soldiers' union. Speaking on the sidelines of the annual reception of the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Armed Forces, Wüstner noted that the approximately 180,000-strong force is "aging and shrinking." Yet it "must definitely be larger" than the 203,300 soldiers already mentioned before the coronavirus pandemic.

André Wüstner, Chairman of the German Bundeswehr Association.

Source: picture alliance / Michael Kappe

The future size depends on the design of NATO capability goals and the burden-bearing capacity of Germany, he says. This will be decided at the NATO summit in June in The Hague, Netherlands. "But I assume that, depending on what is decided at the NATO summit, we will need between 40,000 and 60,000 additional soldiers. This means that the active force would have to grow gradually to up to 260,000 soldiers." At the same time, a capable reserve must be developed from this to reach the target size of 460,000 soldiers set by Inspector General Carsten Breuer.

The head of the Bundeswehr Association warns: "We must ensure a reversal of the trend." And given the foreseeable NATO commitments, he says he cannot imagine the New Military Service announced by Pistorius "without a compulsory element." The minister initially envisions 5,000 conscripts annually. The total number will be ten times that.

Here, too, time is of the essence. "We must enable registration as quickly as possible; this includes a letter of application and then initial contact, ideally combined with a new form of medical examination," warns Wüstner, adding: "Regardless of the number of volunteers who sign up by the end of 2026, the Ministry of Defense must prepare today for a possible switch to mandatory training, because its planning, organization, and implementation would take 18 to 20 months, and we cannot afford to let another 20 months pass after a political decision." Therefore, a two-pronged approach is necessary. "The mandatory training should be prepared as a kind of insurance policy in the spirit of precaution, so that we can immediately activate it after a political decision."

The CDU and CSU have been pushing in this direction for some time. But the Social Democrats are putting the brakes on. And even if they were to heed Wüstner's warnings, it would still be unclear how those affected would react. These are the 18-year-olds in this country who are confronted with climate change, a housing shortage, and a social system at its limits, and now, to make matters worse, with service in a Bundeswehr that could become embroiled in a war on its eastern flank. Even a light form of conscription would be a social and political experiment with an uncertain outcome. Legal hurdles would also be expected.

During the conversation at the annual reception, Pistorius passes by, pauses briefly, and, looking at Wüstner with an ironic smile, says, "You can't believe anything he says." This isn't a criticism, however, but a gesture of recognition. Pistorius knows what Wüstner says is true: that Europe's strongest conventional army requires "political strength, a society willing to defend itself, and a powerful industry." The challenge is enormous.

Military service – yes or no?

The extent to which soft factors such as recognition play a role can be seen in Vilnius' Cathedral Square. Jens B. stands there, addressing journalists who have traveled from Berlin. The sergeant major, originally from the Oderbruch region of Brandenburg, has been stationed in Augustdorf, Westphalia, for a long time, and has served numerous missions abroad. He says of the mission in Lithuania: "I am aware of the risks." But he loves his job and the new things.

In Lithuania, Jens B. and his comrades report that people say "thank you" for being there. In Germany, however, he has sometimes had to flee his daily routine because of his uniform.