Ukraine: How Europe wants to emancipate itself from Trump

On Sunday at 6 p.m., as the polling stations closed in Germany, the news broke in Brussels: The heads of state and government of the European Union will meet for a special summit on Thursday, March 6. On the agenda is the fate of Ukraine , after US President Donald Trump threatened to drop out as an ally and appears to be seeking to join forces with the aggressor Vladimir Putin.

The timing raised suspicions that the EU had deliberately withheld the news and perhaps wanted to conceal the dramatic nature of the situation in Ukraine from the German electorate: European states will have to spend huge sums of money to defend Ukraine and, in the long term, themselves against Russia - and they may also have to send soldiers at some point to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine. Council President António Costa, who is coordinating the special meeting, therefore felt compelled to clarify: the timing had nothing to do with the German elections. Rather, the Council President wanted to send a signal on the eve of February 24, the third anniversary of the Russian invasion: Europe stands by Ukraine.

The presumed new Chancellor Friedrich Merz gave the impression on Sunday evening that the German elections actually marked a turning point for Europe. During their joint TV appearance, he criticized the current Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as usual, for not supplying Ukraine with more and better weapons. The CDU politician went a step further: While Scholz warned against thinking about Europe's security without the help of the USA , Merz wants to make Europe independent of the USA as quickly as possible - for a Christian Democrat who was socialized as a transatlanticist, this was an astonishing statement.

Before Merz can take on the leadership role in Europe, he must work hand in hand with Scholz. The incumbent Chancellor will of course attend the special summit next week. But he has promised to include Merz in the talks.

The heads of state and government want to reach an agreement on how they want to keep Ukraine alive without the USA if necessary. The EU must now finally follow up its big words with big actions, and very quickly, say EU diplomats preparing the meeting. Otherwise, Donald Trump will simply not take the EU seriously in the struggle for Ukraine's future.

The main aim will be to procure new weapons and ammunition for Ukraine as quickly as possible. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas wants to mobilize up to 20 billion for this, not from common EU funds, but financed by the individual member states. Kallas has also proposed using not only the interest from frozen Russian assets to procure weapons, but also the assets themselves. But there is no foreseeable majority for this.

The heads of state and government will also debate what security guarantees Europe can give Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. Much will depend on whether US President Trump agrees to back a European protection force. Without the US's protective umbrella, most European governments consider it impossible to send soldiers between the fronts. To find out what Trump really wants, French President Emmanuel Macron flew to Washington on Sunday.

Viktor Orbán is likely to play a special role at the meeting in Brussels. The Hungarian is once again threatening to oppose the regular extension of the sanctions imposed against Russia over the past three years. He points out that the situation has fundamentally changed as a result of the negotiations with Russia initiated by Trump. These are the Hungarian's usual games, say EU ambassadors in Brussels.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wants to present a comprehensive concept by the summit on how the EU can increase its weapons production and its overall defense capabilities. She announced this in a speech in Kiev on Monday. She traveled to the Ukrainian capital with 21 other commissioners, Council President Costa and Parliament President Roberta Metsola on the anniversary of the invasion to support President Volodymyr Zelensky. Last week, Donald Trump called him a "dictator" who was partly to blame for the war and was standing in the way of peace.

"It is not just the fate of Ukraine that is at stake, but the fate of the whole of Europe," said Ursula von der Leyen. The EU and its member states have so far supported Ukraine with 134 billion euros, of which 48.7 billion has been for weapons. No one has done more for the country, and the EU will continue down this path. A just and lasting peace is only possible from a position of strength, said the Commission President.

The representatives of the three EU institutions demanded that Russia be held accountable for the war crimes it committed and that a special tribunal be set up. Russia and its leadership bear sole responsibility for this war. Von der Leyen was unimpressed by the American negotiations with Russia. "We will continue to tighten our punitive measures against Russia as long as it does not show a real will to achieve lasting peace."

At the same time, the EU foreign ministers, or rather their representatives, met in Brussels and formally adopted the 16th sanctions package against Russia. It had already been negotiated by the EU ambassadors last week and includes new trade restrictions as well as measures against the so-called shadow fleet, which is used to circumvent European sanctions against Russian oil transports.