Japan worried: Mega earthquake could claim 300,000 lives

The tectonic plates beneath Japan have always exhibited high seismic activity, and earthquakes are not uncommon. However, in recent days, there has been an extreme cluster of tremors around the Tokara Islands off the country's southwest coast.

The earth shook more than 900 times within a few days. Fears of an impending mega-earthquake are growing. Current forecasts predict a 75 to 82 percent probability that such a powerful earthquake will occur within the next 30 years.

The current trigger for the heightened state of alert in Japan is an unprecedented series of earthquakes in the remote Tokara Islands. Since June 21, over 900 tremors have been recorded there, including 98 on June 29 alone. While there has been no major damage so far, residents are reporting sleeplessness and increasing panic, according to reports by the Guardian and others.

Fears are growing that the numerous small quakes could be merely a precursor to a mega-earthquake. According to a risk scenario from the Japanese government in March 2025, a strong earthquake in the Nankai Fault, accompanied by a tsunami, could kill up to 298,000 people and cause economic damage of approximately €1.7 trillion. The densely populated Pacific coast in the south and west of the country is particularly at risk.

In response to the perceived increasing danger, Japan has now stepped up its disaster preparedness measures. Tsunami dikes are to be expanded, additional emergency shelters are to be built, and better evacuation plans are to be developed. Companies and aid organizations have also been called upon to work more closely together. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba made it clear that all resources must be combined for the emergency to save as many lives as possible.

More than 900 earthquakes have recently been recorded around the Tokara Islands.

Source: IMAGO/Kyodo News

Despite the tense situation, scientists and the Japanese government are currently urging caution; there's no reason to panic. Predicting an earthquake remains simply impossible, and no one can say whether there is actually an extreme risk of a mega-quake. The important thing now is to be prepared and know exactly what to do in an emergency.

In addition to the supposedly real threat, panic is spreading due to a popular manga with disaster predictions for 2021. In "The Future I Saw," author Ryo Tatsuk predicted a massive earthquake for July 5, 2025 —including a tsunami three times the size of the giant wave of 2011, which severely damaged the Fukushima nuclear power plant, among other things. Even though there is no scientific evidence to support the prediction, it is causing considerable anxiety on social media.

One of the consequences: cancellations and a drop in tourism bookings. Flight and hotel bookings are down about 30 percent, and in some regions like Tottori, even up to 50 percent. Airlines like Hong Kong's Greater Bay Airlines are already reducing flights. According to estimates, fears of the predicted earthquake could cost up to €3.3 billion in tourism revenue. The manga author herself stated in an interview that her books should not be considered scientific predictions. She urges the public to rely on official information, provided, among others, by Japan's official meteorological agency .

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