The worrying number that shows why finding a quality job is an odyssey
Argentina will need Saint Cayetano—that saint is being celebrated right now—to break out of the deep stagnation it has been mired in for the past 15 years in terms of generating quality employment, but, above all, to prevent half of its workers from becoming informal workers in the next decade, that is, suffering in precarious jobs.
A snapshot by the specialized consulting firm ExQuanti revealed the two speeds at which the world of work is moving. It was based on data processed by the prestigious Permanent Household Survey (EPH) of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). More specifically, it determined that "the average quarterly growth of informal employment [illegal work] is three times greater than the average quarterly growth of total employment." This applies to the period from the first to the fourth quarter of 2024.
According to data from the Argentine Integrated Pension System (SIPA), quality employment has been stable since 2011. However, one number is alarming. It has practically not grown in the last decade: in April of this year, registered employment reached 6.2 million employees. This is the same 6.2 million as in April 2015, despite population growth during the period.
For experts, it's clear that the first thing Argentina—a country characterized by the downward spiral that marks its historical GDP—needs is growth. But that wouldn't be enough, and that's why President Javier Milei and the economic team led by Economy Minister Luis Caputo have already announced that after the elections—if they obtain good results —the priority will be labor reform, even before tax reform and, later, pension reform. These are also the commitments the government has set for itself in the Extended Facilities Facility (EFF) signed with the IMF for after October 26.
ExQuanti reported data on labor informality, which rose from 40.8% in the first quarter of 2024 to 42% in the same period of 2025 (at the end of Alberto Fernández's administration, it was 41.4%). During the same period, the employment rate rose from 44.3% to 44.4% (during the fourth Kirchner administration, it closed at 45.8%).
"When looking at the respective data, it is possible to see that for the last year, between the fourth quarters of 2023 and 2024, the informal employment rate in Argentina has been growing. This indicator indeed shows significant and developing levels of informality," the specialized consulting firm estimated.
“Based on the observed data, it can be seen that the average quarterly growth in informal employment is three times the average quarterly growth in total employment. This means that, although these are small growth rates, over time, if everything remains the same, Argentina will approach levels of labor informality similar to those of the most characteristic South American countries in the region,” he concluded. “It has been established that, although the country's current informality rate is 42%, if the average quarterly changes continue at those observed in the last year, it is possible that within a decade, half of the employed population will be in informal jobs,” he concluded.
Although the latest INDEC report shows an increase in unemployment between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 (from 6.4% to 7.9%), the truth is that seasonality has a profound impact on the labor market. In fact, unemployment remained virtually unchanged when comparing the first quarter of 2024 with that of 2025 (from 7.7% to 7.9%). In fact, ExQuanti specialists detected that with unemployment not growing, but with a decrease in the participation rate—people seeking employment—what is known as the "discouragement effect" could occur. This implies that, given the lack of opportunities in the labor market, people are not even actively searching. However, the stagnant employment rate and the fall in the participation rate are combined with another fact that surprises more than one expert: the strong recovery shown by the income of the employed in recent months.
"It is important to note that another possible interpretation of the return of people to inactivity from unemployment could be that, under a situation of income improvement, household members known as 'complementary workers' (spouses, homemakers, children of school age, retirees returning to the labor market, etc.) are reinstated in their 'natural place' as inactive persons. In this sense, the return to inactivity would not be under the condition of 'refuge' but rather a 'return to normal,'" indicated the ExQuanti specialists.
"The income of employed people during the observed period has recovered significantly from the sharp decline experienced in late 2023 and early 2024," they added regarding income.
More specifically, the specialists indicated that, at the extremes of the series, it is possible to observe that, even today, "where there have been notable improvements in the average real income of the employed," there is still "a very significant adjustment." More specifically, for the first quarter of 2025, the average income of the employed shows an estimated real reduction of 15 percentage points compared to the comparable third quarter of 2017. "This means that the deterioration of the labor market in Argentina is fundamentally presented as an adjustment due to prices and not so much due to the volume or quantity of employment, regardless of the fact that the latter also seems to be showing signs of deterioration given the significant progress that is occurring in informal employment," they concluded their analysis.
The latest official report from the Ministry of Labor noted that one of the most notable developments in the labor market over the last decade was the significant growth in employment under the single-tax system, "in a context in which both activity and registered salaried employment in companies remained virtually constant."
According to SIPA data processed between 2012 and 2024, the number of self-employed workers increased by 56%, while formal private salaried employment grew only 3% and the Gross Domestic Product remained constant.
The Ministry compared the indicators of formal and informal employment collected by the EPH in 2024 with the same indicators measured by the National Survey of Social Protection and Security (ENAPROSS) in 2011 by the former Ministry of Labor, Employment, and Social Security. The Ministry of Labor concluded: "The growth of self-employment in the last decade is strongly associated with the labor market insertion of people with tertiary and university education in a context marked by the scarcity of job opportunities in formal salaried positions in the private sector."
“Additionally, the significant growth in the number of workers registered as monotributo workers did not translate into a reduction in informal employment. This is due to the fact that some of these workers entered into employment relationships without the corresponding contributions to this type of integration and instead made contributions to the social security system as independent contractors . This is also due to the fact that informal self-employment increased, thereby offsetting the increased registration of independent monotributo workers,” the study concluded, which also noted the precariousness of the labor market.
lanacion
