German democracy's last straw: Merz's ruthless approach to the Social Democrats

Merz, 69, with a lively but implacable profile, says he wants to govern for all those who think well and have common sense. “The left is gone [in reference to the red-green government of Olaf Scholz], there is no longer a left majority, nor any left-wing politics.” Friedrich Merz, the next chancellor, would do well to emphasise his conservative profile, that he is on the right and that he will corner the ultras. Merz leads the democratic shift to the right; but making it clear that he is not a “new sheriff in town” (a new sheriff in the city), as the American vice president JD Vance has described Trump.

Sunday's election was marked by the victory of the CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union), which reached 28.5%, and by the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which doubled its result (20.8%, compared to 10.4% in 2021), but did not upset the democratic balance.

Merz will govern with the Social Democrats at a time of multiple challenges . The imminent one: he needs money. But to approve larger budgets or reform the debt brake he will have to modify the Constitution with a two-thirds majority that he will not have in the Bundestag (the extreme right and the Left would oppose it). He could do it with the current Parliament, before the legislative period ends on March 24. There is a rush: in 2029 democracy will be called into question, warns the president of Bavaria, the Christian Social Markus Söder, a partner of Merz. Scholz's tripartite government blew up because it could not finance its future investments. The liberals and the two parties of the Union refused to reform the debt brake, anchored in the Constitution. It is incredible how quickly Merz has changed his mind.

Recession, political instability, perceptions of social injustice… This is not the Germany of consensus and well-being. The crisis and the inability to manoeuvre (due to lack of money) broke up Scholz's three-party coalition. In the early elections on Sunday, Germans supported the conservatives of the Union, but also expressed their discontent by voting at both extremes: 20.8% for Alternative for Germany was joined by 8.8% for The Left and 4.97% for the populist party BSW, the left-wing alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht. A crazy 35%.

What is worrying is that the CDU/CSU Union is being followed by a far-right led by an increasingly brazen and defiant Alice Weidel. AfD doubled its 2021 result, and will try to pulverize the democratic centre of the next coalition and become the largest force in 2029. While the traditional parties are shrinking, they are putting up a firewall to prevent a coalition with AfD, which is described as partially far-right.

In response, Weidel has launched fiery darts at Merz, whom he accuses of “copying the asylum policy arguments of the AfD, but not being able to implement them because of his future coalition with the Social Democrats.” And that is the key to the next government: the implacable Merz, rigid until now in his anti-immigration and anti-debt plans, will govern with the Social Democrats, who will bring him down to earth. In immigration policy, he will not be able to ignore European rules; and, in fiscal policy, he will have to reform the debt brake (the annual deficit cannot exceed 0.35% of GDP) if he wants to take off economically, invest and finance the future of his industry and European defense. Concessions are part of German democracy. The only time the Union achieved an absolute majority in Berlin was in 1957, with Konrad Adenauer.

These are the first elections since the Russian aggression and the Trump factor. With tremendous implications for Germany, also because more will have to be spent on defence. Although foreign policy was not a key issue in these elections, the war influenced the break-up of the coalition. It broke up over money. And money will dictate the course of the next government.

Little economy

Scholz had an extremely difficult time of it, but Merz will not have an easier time either. The next chancellor wanted to concentrate on the economy, but the economy was hardly discussed in the election campaign. The debate was about immigration. Now, with Trump strangling Europe, it is clear that Merz will not only reform social assistance (the so-called citizens' money) and tighten the control of the influx of refugees. Merz, who began his political career in the European Parliament, has reproached Scholz for his lack of influence in the EU and has warned that he will confront Trumpism with authority and determination.

Germany needs a larger fiscal space to allow for greater public investment in infrastructure, to lower energy prices, to boost the arms industry, to invest in the technologies of the future. The majority of the population wants a change of direction in economic and migration policy. “If we don’t get it, the populists will triumph in 2029,” warns Merz. The reality is that the far right is doubling; the Social Democrats (SPD) are collapsing, with 16.4%, the worst result since their foundation in 1890; the Greens are also losing, from 14.7% to the current 11.6%. The Left is consolidating. And the liberals (FDP) and the populists of BSW do not exceed 5% and are left out. The new government will mean a shift to the right and will also assume a historic responsibility: to unite the center to stop the rise of the far right.

The country is polarised by a single issue, immigration, which has mobilised and led to a high percentage of turnout. Instead of focusing on their specific political arguments, the parties have been carried away by the migration challenge, following the lead of the AfD, which emphasised issues of citizen insecurity and social justice (“is it worth working when many emigrants manage to live in Germany without doing so?”). It not only benefited from the protest vote, but also from the convinced vote, so there will be an AfD for a long time. And Germany will not be able to solve its structural problems by just touching one button.

However, most still see Weidel's statement to Musk in January that Hitler was a communist and that he agreed with him that Germany should stop dredging up its past as a scandal. Weidel: "The biggest success (...) was to describe Hitler as a right-wing conservative. (...) He was not a conservative. He was a socialist and communist guy." On January 25, Musk spoke at the AfD congress to support Weidel. A few days earlier, he had celebrated himself at Trump's presidential party with a Nazi gesture.

The Bavarian Christian Socialists, who will govern with Merz, announce that the first measure of the next government will be to turn away at the borders those who do not have the right to enter Germany. They promise to speed up the asylum process, recognise more countries as safe and return refugees to Syria and Afghanistan. Those waiting to return to their countries will receive the bare minimum: a bed, bread and soap. They also advocate changing European law so that asylum applications are resolved in third countries, where they can stay if the right to refuge is confirmed. Söder praises Merz for restoring “law and order” and taking a “hard line” position.

Merz promises competence and authority. “Germany can only be taken seriously if it defends its own interests as clearly as the US does with the EU.” Defence will cost money. And Merz will have to deal with reality – and with the debt brake. His new government will be tied up by Easter.