Bayrou's government will fall today in a vote of no confidence without a clear alternative.

The government of French Prime Minister François Bayrou, the centrist, is almost certain to fall this Monday in a vote of no confidence that he himself called, with no clear alternative in sight that could offer political stability in the short or medium term.

Bayrou, who has been in office since December 2024, when he replaced conservative Michel Barnier—who was censured after just three months—will be put to a vote by MPs this afternoon, and all opposition groups, both far right and left, have said they will vote against it, giving him a clear majority.

This will force him to submit his resignation and that of his government to the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, who will then have to decide whether to appoint another prime minister or call early legislative elections, since the head of state has always ruled out resigning, as demanded by the radical left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and, to a certain extent, the far right.

In recent days, there have been rumors that Macron has considered appointing a Socialist prime minister or one of his entourage, with the intention of forming a government with a broader base, one that would continue to include centrists, Macronists, and the conservative Republicans, who have been the mainstay of the Bayrou cabinet.

The first secretary of the Socialist Party (PS), Olivier Faure, who has been the name most frequently mentioned, has clarified that he will accept being prime minister, but of a left-wing government that, once formed, would negotiate each text with the other parliamentary parties to seek majorities.

The problem is that the National Assembly is highly fragmented and polarized, with three almost identical blocs that are irreconcilable with each other and with notable internal dissensions in some cases.

Thus, on the left, a clear split has emerged between the Socialists and La France Insoumise (LFI, the leading group by number of deputies in this bloc), which accuses the former of having renounced the program they agreed upon when they presented themselves as the New Popular Front (NFP) in the early legislative elections of summer 2024.

LFI coordinator Manuel Bompard warned this morning that they will censure a potential Socialist-led government if it does not break with the political line maintained by successive cabinets since Macron came to the Élysée Palace in May 2018.

"We will censure any government that intends to continue the same policy, that does not break with the policy of Macronism," Bompard stressed in an interview with France Info radio, adding that he does not believe "for a minute" that the head of state "is prepared to appoint someone in Matignon (the prime minister's official residence) who is going to break with Macronism."

The radical left party's distrust of the socialists is justified, he explained, because the PS has abandoned the NFP's program with the LFI, the environmentalists, and the communists.

Bompard noted that if Macron decides to call new legislative elections, the LFI will try to ensure that every constituency has a candidate "with the NFP's platform."

But for LFI, that's not the solution in the current context because "the situation is politically deadlocked," and to break this deadlock, "the solution lies in the president of the Republic leaving."

Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) is demanding at least early legislative elections, although they would prefer Macron to resign.

Le Pen insisted this Sunday that they are prepared for an alternative government with party leader Jordan Bardella as prime minister.

"What we want is to pursue a policy of rupture so the country can recover," Le Pen MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy said this morning on BFMTV.