Haiti seeks a plan to emerge from the abyss: how to recover the economy amid its worst security crisis

Haitians are not only facing one of the worst crises of violence in their recent history, in which some 8,700 people have died between the beginning of 2024 and June 2025, but also living in one of the poorest countries in the world , with inflation at 26.9% and a GDP that has been declining for five consecutive years. Development banks, at the request of the transitional government, have sought to develop recovery plans for a country that, in the last 15 years, has experienced the devastating earthquake of 2010 , the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021 , and the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry in 2024 , the fuse that ignited the current wave of insecurity. One project has looked at Port-au-Prince and another at the Grand Nord region, in an attempt to decentralize investment. But their development and implementation is proving much more complex than expected.

“Port-au-Prince is estimated to be 90% controlled by gangs at this time,” acknowledged Anne-Lucie Lefebvre, the World Bank's country manager in Haiti, in a video call with this newspaper. This near-absolute control of the capital and the escalating violence have been the source—but also the biggest headache—of a recovery plan the World Bank has been working on for the past year, in conjunction with the European Union and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).

It is estimated that Port-au-Prince is currently 90% controlled by gangs.

Anne-Lucie Lefebvre, World Bank Country Manager in Haiti

In May 2024, the newly installed transitional government requested a Rapid Crisis Impact Assessment (RCIA) to calculate losses and define priority investments. In December, the World Bank estimated that the country had lost more than $9 billion (€7.774 billion) since 2019. It also determined that, for an initial lifeline , $1.3 billion would be needed to invest in infrastructure, security, social protection, and economic recovery by 2026, according to Lefebvre. The government was ready to begin implementing the plan, but a few months later, violence worsened.

Between January and June of this year alone, 3,141 people were murdered , and a record number of 1.3 million people were internally displaced since the beginning of the crisis. In June, the US Embassy urged its citizens to leave the island "as soon as possible." The UN has warned that criminal gangs have expanded beyond the capital, committing murders, rapes, and kidnappings. In April, at a roundtable discussion between members of the government and the World Bank, the need to update the plan was made clear.

Mounir Mahmalat, one of the authors of the original RCIA, acknowledges that, at this time, the bank lacks the capacity to "physically execute" the infrastructure projects envisioned in the original plan. "The security situation worsened rather than improved, which was the basic principle of the RCIA," Mahmalat admits in the same video call as Lefebvre, but explains that they are currently able to make progress in assessing needs and coordinating.

The new RCIA, aligned with the "new reality," is practically ready and awaiting government approval. "We can't provide figures, but we estimate that approximately half of the interventions we had identified would remain viable," says Mahmalat.

Decentralize and invest in the Great North

Based on the World Bank's experience, the IDB has proposed a different investment destination: the Greater North region. Corinne Cathala, IDB representative in Haiti, explains that this region is one of the country's largest economic centers. "The government decided to prioritize the northern region in a medium- and long-term recovery plan for the next five years . We will start with this region and then move on to others. The south will probably be the second," Cathala stated in a video call with EL PAÍS.

The Greater North of Haiti is comprised of the departments of North, Northeast, and Northwest. In the north, in the city of Cap-Haïtien, is the only functioning international airport, as the one in Port-au-Prince closed due to the crisis. There is also the Caracol Industrial Park, inaugurated after the 2010 earthquake in an attempt to attract foreign investment and create jobs, and tourist areas such as Labadee, where cruise ships stop.

But this area has also been a destination for those fleeing the capital . Wolf Pamphile, director of the Haiti Policy House think tank , explains that after the earthquake, there was an initial mass migration to that region. “Now, the north is experiencing another migration boom , and many wealthy Haitians are buying homes there. If you go to the north this weekend, you might wonder, ‘Is this the same country with the gangs?’” Pamphile explains via video call, adding that the north, in terms of cost-benefit, is a good place to start investing. “Although you should look at other cities,” he emphasizes.

If you go north this weekend, you might wonder, is this the same country with the gangs?

The plan, which is currently being drafted, will focus on three pillars. The first, economic development and strengthening the private sector, will focus on infrastructure construction and economic diversification. The second, basic services and human capital development, will concentrate on social transfers. And finally, the area of institutional strengthening will provide the State with tools for security, justice, fiscal strengthening, and the digitalization of government services. Cathala hopes that by the end of 2025, a budget, the necessary investments, and the areas each donor will be responsible for will be defined.

The IDB's Medium-Term Recovery and Development Plan 2025-2030 differs from the World Bank's RCIA not only in the region where the investment will be made, but also in the emphasis it will place on the private sector . "If there is no private sector, there is no job creation for young people. And what does that do? They end up joining gangs. Strengthening the private sector, especially at the local level, is essential to fostering inclusive economic growth, generating employment, and diversifying the Haitian economy," Cathala maintains, adding that the plan's objective will be to promote public-private partnerships, facilitate access to new markets, and improve the regulatory environment.

A World Bank document already warned that Haiti's economy had contracted by 8.5% in the last decade. It also notes that Haiti's business environment had progressively deteriorated since 2018 and that, as of 2021, the decline had accelerated. The violence, the financial institution says, disrupted supply chains and led to the closure of production centers and businesses.

Economic alternatives

For Cathalá, from the IDB, the decentralization of services in other regions could help the capital. However, Robert Fatton, professor emeritus at the University of Virginia and author of several books on Haiti, warns that this is not the first time the region has been invested in with the same idea. "After the 2010 earthquake, the Clinton Bush Haiti Fund also thought that Cap-Haïtien could be a development hub, taking advantage of cheap labor to export to the US and Europe. That didn't work out very well," Fatton recalls. Today, he adds, the private sector is still very weak.

For Fatton, the key investment for development lies in agriculture. “Fifty years ago, Haiti was self-sufficient in food production. But that changed because emphasis was placed on opening the economy and reducing tariffs in a weak, uncompetitive economy. Today, almost everything Haitians consume is imported,” the researcher says. While he recognizes the need to decentralize Haiti, he fears that plans like these “won't change the nature of the Haitian economy ” and inequality.

The director of Haiti Policy House is eagerly awaiting the World Bank's RCIA update and the IDB's roadmap, especially with regard to the private sector. "Usually, when they talk about the private sector, they're talking about the top 10, the largest companies, which represent 5%. But at the end of the day, it's small businesses that sustain the economy and generate employment . Furthermore, the country has a high rate of informality. Are those people also part of the plan?" he asks.

Both experts also warn that until stability and security are guaranteed in the country, any investment could be risky and unsustainable. "If you want it to work, there needs to be some institutional and political stability, but that's not going to happen soon, because the government has no control over what happens in Port-au-Prince," Fatton fears. Pamphile notes that everything will depend on the results of the Multinational Security Support Mission, authorized by the UN and led by Kenya, and on the eventual calling of elections. The author of the RCIA, for his part, acknowledges that the main driver for resolving Port-au-Prince's security situation "will not be development," at least for now. "But once a stronger or more effective security response arrives, a development plan will be needed to make these efforts sustainable. It's not enough to send armed forces; we must restore trust in the institutions," he concludes.