Nintendo Switch 2 is selling like hot cakes, but Christmas will be key.

Just weeks after its launch, the Nintendo Switch 2 has become a sales phenomenon. With 1.6 million units sold in the United States alone in its first month, the console has already set an all-time record . Japan has experienced a similar phenomenon, with lines at physical stores not seen since the launch of the first Switch in 2017.

In the words of Mat Piscatella , lead analyst at Circana, "the initial data is an incredibly good read" on the console's potential future. However, the expert urges caution: true success isn't measured in the short term, but rather over time and with the behavior of the average consumer.

The history of the video game industry has taught us that initial numbers don't guarantee eternal glory . Some consoles have had spectacular launches that failed to sustain themselves over time. The key for Nintendo will be getting the fan base that bought the original Switch to make the jump to the next generation ... and getting new players on board.

That's where the big question comes in: are consumers willing to pay between €470 and €510 for the console? Although the most loyal customers have done so without hesitation, Christmas 2025 will mark the decisive moment for the long-term success or failure of the Switch 2.

The flagship bundle that includes Switch 2 and Mario Kart World has been a hit with early buyers. But the price remains high. In the United States, where hardware spending has broken the $978 million barrier , competition will be fierce during the holidays.

Piscatella warns that price won't be an issue for passionate gamers, but it will be a challenge to win over the average consumer . If Nintendo fails to cross that threshold, it risks seeing its sales stagnate after the initial hype.

The case of the original Switch, which sold more than 130 million units worldwide, is a high bar that Nintendo is looking to surpass or at least match . And while the early numbers are encouraging, the console market is increasingly demanding and changing. Nintendo has everything to win, but it needs to play its cards with surgical precision. The true story of success or failure will be written this Christmas, when millions of gamers decide whether this new console is worth it or not.