Why Asteroid 2024 YR4 No Longer Represents a Threat to Earth (But Still to the Moon)
DECRYPTION - The international asteroid monitoring network had launched an alert at the end of January, the first in its history, due to a risk of impact greater than 1% on December 22, 2032.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer a threat to Earth. After peaking at over 3% in mid-February, the probability of impact on December 22, 2032 has fallen back below 0.001%. "There is now no significant risk of impact with Earth over the next century," the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) assured on Monday , officially closing a file it had opened at the end of January. The rock had just met the two criteria defined by this structure set up under the aegis of the UN in 2013 to sound the alert: it measured more than 10 meters (40 to 90 m according to estimates, enough to wipe a city off the map) and presented an impact risk greater than 1%.
"This is the first time since 2004 and the asteroid Apophis that an object has met these two conditions," recalls Patrick Michel, astrophysicist at the Côte d'Azur Observatory and member of the steering committee of...
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