Customs duties: talks between China and the United States this weekend, where is the trade war?

The United States has raised tariffs on a large portion of Chinese imports to 145% . China is also facing sector-specific tariffs targeting steel, aluminum, and electric vehicles.

According to Chinese Customs, exports of "made in China" products to the United States last year exceeded $500 billion. These goods accounted for 16.4% of the Asian giant's total exports.

China has promised to fight Donald Trump's tariffs "to the bitter end" and has imposed retaliatory tariffs of up to 125% on American products.

According to Washington, US merchandise exports to China last year were worth $143.5 billion.

China has launched WTO proceedings, frozen its airlines' receipts of Boeing aircraft, and announced restrictions on the export of rare earths - some of which are used in magnetic imaging and consumer electronics.

What impact so far?

Beijing has long angered the Trump administration because the Asian giant, where many of its factories are based, has a large trade surplus with the United States. It was $295.4 billion last year, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

China seems reluctant to change this balance, particularly because its exports, which peaked in 2024, are driving the economy in a context of sluggish domestic consumption.

But an escalation of the trade war could have serious repercussions on these exports and weaken China's post-Covid economic recovery, already undermined by a real estate crisis. But this Friday, Beijing announced an 8.1% jump in its exports in April, a figure four times higher than forecast.

The impact is also being felt in the United States: uncertainty caused a decline in manufacturing activity last month. US authorities blame this for the unexpected slowdown in GDP in the first quarter .

"Both countries have realized that complete decoupling is not that easy," says Teeuwe Mevissen, an economist at Rabobank.

"Both the United States and China are losing economically in this trade war. Even if one of them were to clearly gain the upper hand, its economic situation would still remain less favorable than before the start of this trade war."

World Trade Organization (WTO) chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned in April that the trade war could reduce trade in goods between the two powers by 80% .

China announced a series of interest rate cuts on Wednesday aimed at boosting consumption—a possible sign that the country is beginning to feel the effects of the conflict. Analysts also predict that the US tariffs will significantly reduce China's GDP, which the government hopes will grow by "around 5 percent" in 2025.

China's main exports to the United States—electronics, machinery, textiles, and clothing—are expected to be hit hardest.

But since Chinese products play a crucial role in supplying American companies, these tariffs could also affect American manufacturers and consumers, analysts warn.

What progress is possible?

Eager to appear strong, both countries each claim that economic pressure pushed the other to negotiate. But a major breakthrough in Geneva seems unlikely.

China maintains its position remains unchanged. It demands that the United States lift its tariffs and refuses to negotiate under "threats." US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that the talks will focus on "de-escalation" and not on a "grand trade deal."

Analysts, however, expect potential reductions in tariff surcharges. "One possible outcome of the talks in Switzerland would be an agreement to suspend most, if not all, of the tariffs imposed this year, for the duration of the bilateral negotiations," said Bonnie Glaser, who directs the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based think tank.