Agriculture: a good wheat harvest expected with 32.6 million tonnes

"The smile" is back on the plains: French wheat production is expected to reach 32.6 million tonnes in 2025, up 27% compared to last year's disastrous harvest, according to initial estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture published on Wednesday, July 16.

"We're pretty happy, even if we have to remain cautious at this stage. We're heading towards a good harvest (...) with good yields and good quality," commented Benoît Piétrement, president of the specialist council on large-scale crops at the public institution FranceAgriMer, during a press briefing.

This expected good harvest in France, Europe's leading producer of bread cereals, would see production increase by 7 million tonnes over one year. This increase is mainly linked to the increase in yield compared to the low point of the previous season : it stands at an average of 72.6 quintals per hectare, compared to 60.9 q/ha in 2024, an increase of 19%, according to the July bulletin from Agreste, the statistics service of the Ministry of Agriculture.

This rebound remains limited, however, because 2025 production would be "only 2.4% above the 2020-2024 average, a period which includes two years of poor harvests" , notes this note. This is explained, according to the ministry, by a limited increase in cultivated areas over one year and a "relatively low national crop rotation level" with nearly 4.5 million hectares of soft wheat, "i.e. 97,000 hectares less than the average cultivated area between 2020 and 2024" .

This harvest, which looks better than expected, nevertheless hides "a real heterogeneity" , not geographical but linked to the date of sowing: early winter sowings resisted the "heat wave" of early summer better than the later ones, specified Benoît Piétrement, also president of Intercéréales, which brings together the players in the sector. The regions in the northern third of France remain those which offer the highest yields of soft wheat. And the strongest increases are reported in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, where the yield is expected to exceed its five-year average by 17%, in Midi-Pyrénées (+13%) and in Alsace-Lorraine (+11%).

If confirmed, this harvest would allow for the export of more than 14 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 marketing year, including 6.7 million tonnes to European Union countries – an unchanged volume – and 7.5 million to third countries – double the previous year, FranceAgriMer points out. The destinations most eager for French wheat are currently Morocco, certain countries in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and, exporters hope, China, which has been very discreet in its purchases in recent months.

Regarding all straw cereals, as of July 1, harvests are generally taking place "in good conditions" and are expected to show "a strong increase" (+25% year-on-year), thanks to good weather and crop health conditions this year, according to the Agreste bulletin. Barley production, whose harvest is coming to an end, is estimated at 11.8 million tonnes (+19% year-on-year), due to an increase in yield with almost stable areas.

Durum wheat production, processed into semolina and pasta, would be 3.5% higher than in 2024, at nearly 1.3 million tonnes, with improved yields "more than offsetting a further decline in cultivated areas (-7% over one year)" . Harvests of triticale and oats, cereals mainly intended for livestock, are up sharply, reaching 1.5 million tonnes and 467,000 tonnes respectively. In 2025, there is also a "clear rebound in rapeseed production" to 4.2 million tonnes (+8%), as well as that of protein crops (peas, field beans, lupins), to 0.8 million tonnes (+15%), due to the combined increase in cultivated areas and yields.