EU-US tariffs: Donald Trump to meet Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland on Sunday in last-ditch attempt to reach agreement
For the American president, there is a "50/50 chance" that these discussions will succeed. From Scotland, where he is on a five-day visit , Donald Trump is due to negotiate with the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on Sunday, July 27, in an attempt to secure a customs agreement between the United States and the European Union (EU).
A last-ditch attempt, as the deadline set by the 79-year-old Republican approaches, launching a vast protectionist offensive. The latter gave talks a chance until August 1st before imposing 30% tariffs on European products entering the United States. Any agreement reached between the two leaders would then have to be validated by EU member states.
Diplomats representing the Twenty-Seven, traveling to Greenland, are scheduled to meet there in the morning to be briefed by the European executive on the latest negotiations, and are expected to meet again on Sunday evening or Monday, in the event of white smoke at Turnberry. The meeting is scheduled to take place in this quiet town on the west coast of Scotland, where the Trump family owns a luxury golf resort, starting at 4:30 p.m. (5:30 p.m. in Paris), according to the White House.
Risk of escalation in case of failure"We have a fifty-fifty chance" of reaching an agreement, Donald Trump declared on Friday upon his arrival in Scotland , from where he will leave on Tuesday after a half-private, half-diplomatic stay. According to the Financial Times , tense discussions already took place between the United States and the EU on Saturday evening on steel, automobiles and pharmaceutical products.
Before his meeting with the European leader, Donald Trump once again took time on Sunday morning for a round of golf. The American president assured that he was "eager" to speak with Ursula von der Leyen, a "highly respected woman." This amiable tone contrasts with the invective heaped on the EU by the Republican, who he believes was created with the aim of "ripping off" the United States.
According to several European sources, the text under discussion provides for 15% customs surcharges on European exports to the United States , with exemptions for aeronautics and spirits—but not for wine. Such a result would confirm that transatlantic trade has entered a new era, one of unashamed American protectionism. Until Donald Trump's return to power, it was marked by a much lower level of American customs duties, averaging 4.8%.
In fact, the effective rate applied by the United States to European goods already amounts to nearly 15%, if we add the 10% surcharge already applied by the American government and the pre-existing rate of 4.8%. The EU is currently subject to a 25% tax on cars, a 50% tax on steel and aluminum, as well as general customs duties of 10%. But an agreement would have the merit of removing uncertainty, that formidable poison in trade matters.
If Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump fail to reach an agreement, Brussels has assured that it is ready to retaliate by imposing taxes on American products and services. The European executive, under the leadership of certain countries such as France, could also freeze access to European public procurement markets or block certain investments.
On Thursday, it approved retaliations worth 93 billion euros , which would apply from August 7 if trade negotiations with the United States were to fail. Drawing this "bazooka" - called an "anti-coercion" instrument in Brussels jargon - would lead Europe and America into an unprecedented diplomatic and economic escalation.
The Specter of the Epstein AffairDonald Trump, a former real estate developer who wrote a best-selling book on "The Art of the Deal," claims to be in a position of strength. But some polls show that Americans doubt his tariff strategy and his overall conduct of business.
The New York billionaire, who has always shrugged off scandals and criminal prosecutions, is simultaneously struggling to extricate himself from the Jeffrey Epstein affair. He is accused of lacking transparency about his relationship with the wealthy financier, who died in prison before being tried for sex crimes, a trial that promised to be a sensation.
Reporting an agreement with the EU, promising colossal benefits for the American economy, and following those concluded in recent days with Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia, could be a welcome diversion.
On Monday, American negotiators will meet in Stockholm with China to try to avoid a resumption of the trade escalation.
The World with AFP
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