France's GDP to grow by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025, better than expected

This moderate increase in gross domestic product (GDP) between April and June, in a very uncertain national and international context, is higher than the forecast of the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, which anticipated growth of 0.2% after +0.1% in the first quarter.

"The 0.3% growth we had in the second quarter clearly shows, even though customs duties were already in effect, that French companies are resisting this situation," commented Economy Minister Eric Lombard on RTL , who will meet with the sectors affected by the trade agreement with the United States in the afternoon.

As at the beginning of the year, inventories drove growth, with a positive contribution of 0.5 points, after a +0.7 point increase in the first quarter. Inventories represent goods produced but not yet sold at the end of a given period, in this case aeronautical and automotive equipment. An increase in inventories can mean that production is being carried out in anticipation of a boom in demand or, less favorably, that the manufactured products have not found buyers.

Excluding inventories, however, final domestic demand stagnated. A traditional pillar of growth, household consumption rebounded slightly, by 0.1% after a 0.3% decline in the first quarter, driven by increased consumption of food products. "This recovery can be explained in particular by the timing of the Easter holidays at the end of April and favorable weather in April and May," explained INSEE.

Households also consumed more services, while mild temperatures weighed on energy consumption, which fell by 2.4% (after +0.8%). In April and June, investments plunged into the red (-0.3% after -0.1%), penalized in particular by construction.