Is American real estate threatened by Donald Trump's policies?

After tourism and consumer spending, real estate could well become the latest victim of the American president's economic policy. The latest figures for the sector are far from encouraging.

The number of home sales in the United States in March was at its lowest since 2009 and the financial crisis triggered by the collapse of the American bank Lehman Brothers. In one month, between February and March, home sales in the United States fell by 6%. A sharp acceleration in the decline, noted by the powerful National Association of Realtors. If the trend continues, 2025 could surpass 1995, the worst year for real estate transactions across the Atlantic.

As in many other sectors, it's the general wait-and-see attitude that's weighing on investor morale in the face of Donald Trump's policies. This phenomenon is only getting worse month after month. This wait-and-see attitude is exacerbating an already precarious situation for real estate with high interest rates, particularly mortgage rates. American households are seeing the cost of home loans explode. The new government team in Washington is waiting for only one thing from the central bank (the FED, the equivalent of our ECB): to lower interest rates. However, the FED is independent and wants to remain so.

A real estate agent by trade, Donald Trump is champing at the bit but can't do anything because the current Fed chief, Jerome Powell, is overly jealous of his prerogatives and relies primarily on the international economic context. We're witnessing a real power struggle between political and monetary authorities.

But is the real estate problem entirely linked to Donald Trump's policies? In reality, the situation is only getting worse. Over the past five years, real estate prices in the United States have increased by approximately 50%. Difficult access to housing already explained a large part of the popular discontent under the Biden era. But the new customs duties imposed by Donald Trump are increasing the cost of raw materials and equipment, which only exacerbates the problem. Added to this is the fight against immigration, which is penalizing recruitment in the construction industry. The real estate crisis in the United States is shaping up to be the next thorn in Donald Trump's side, some six months after his arrival in the White House.