War in Ukraine: Is the minerals agreement signed with Washington a good deal for kyiv?

Last week, Donald Trump expressed irritation that the "very important rare earth agreement" had not yet been signed. It has now been signed . The United States and Ukraine formalized the conclusion of an agreement on the exploitation of mineral resources on Wednesday evening. The text notably provides for the creation of an investment fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine, jointly managed by Kyiv and Washington and financed by the exploitation of Ukrainian natural resources: minerals, oil, and gas.

The signing of this agreement comes after several weeks of tensions between the two countries, which culminated in the disastrous meeting on February 28 at the White House between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky . Humiliated by his American counterpart , the Ukrainian president left without signing any agreement. He had already rejected a first proposal, believing that it would amount to making ten generations of Ukrainians pay. Donald Trump was demanding at the time $500 billion in reimbursement for the military and financial aid (estimated at $120 billion) granted to Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion.

No reimbursement of aid received

The obligation to repay the aid received was removed from the final agreement, hailed by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal as "a fine international agreement, fair between the American and Ukrainian governments." However, it stipulates that any new American aid will be considered a contribution to the investment fund, with Kyiv logically expected to contribute the same amount.

The text also does not grant the United States any exorbitant rights over Ukrainian natural resources. According to Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, a signatory to the agreement, Kyiv "will retain full ownership and control" of these resources. Washington also undertakes to avoid any conflict between the agreement and the obligations that might be imposed on Ukraine as part of its integration into the European Union.

No security guarantee

Ukraine, however, failed to secure security guarantees from the United States against Russia. The agreement remains silent on this point, with Donald Trump considering since the beginning of the negotiations that the existence of an economic partnership between Kyiv and Washington constitutes a sufficient guarantee. "This agreement sends a clear signal to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine," said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

The agreement also states that it constitutes "a tangible demonstration of the United States' support for the security, prosperity, and reconstruction […] of Ukraine." It also clearly acknowledges Moscow's role in triggering the war, referring to "Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine." In February, in a violent attack on Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump accused Ukraine of being the cause of the conflict.

Graphite and lithium

The agreement is expected to be ratified by the Ukrainian parliament within two weeks. For it to have any chance of contributing to Ukraine's reconstruction, or to peace with Russia, however, much more will be needed than a signature from Kyiv or Washington. It is private companies, American or European, that will be called upon to give substance to this "strategic partnership" by investing in the exploitation of Ukraine's subsoil—investments worth billions, with a return on investment that could take years.

Ukraine possesses oil and gas, but above all, deposits of critical raw materials. It is one of the world's leading producers of graphite, but also has significant reserves of titanium, lithium, and uranium. It also possesses rare earth elements—elements essential to high-tech industries, whose exports to the United States were recently restricted by China in retaliation for the trade war launched by Donald Trump—but these deposits are largely untapped.