"Blank year", civil service cuts, public holidays eliminated... François Bayrou's savings plans

All the ingredients for a bitter potion are present. Faced with public finances in the red , François Bayrou intends to save 40 billion euros in the 2026 budget, while remaining within the sacrosanct Macronist line of not raising taxes and not touching businesses. And by freeing up funds for the country's rearmament . The bulk of this effort therefore seems likely to involve reducing public spending.

In 2024, the government collected €1.5 trillion in revenue and spent €1.67 trillion, according to the Ministry of the Economy's website . The government intends to reduce France's deficit, which is expected to reach 5.4% of GDP in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, with a final target of 3% in 2029.

While contributions have been pouring in over the past few weeks, here are the hypotheses currently on François Bayrou's table, ahead of the presentation of his budget plan on Tuesday, July 15.

The hypothesis that is constantly being put forward is to continue certain expenses unchanged between 2025 and 2026, without any increase. But the resources expected from this source of savings vary significantly depending on the scope chosen.

According to the Senate Finance Committee, freezing state spending on its budgetary missions (excluding defense, contributions to the EU budget, and debt repayments) between 2025 and 2026 could generate €10 billion.

According to the French Economic Observatory (OFCE) and the Institute of Public Policy (IPP), a blank year could save between 5.7 and 6 billion euros.

The idea of de-indexing retirement pensions in relation to inflation is gaining ground, reinforced by a proposal to this effect from the Pensions Monitoring Committee (CSR) , and supported by several parliamentarians from the government camp.

In the context of a "blank year," refraining from indexing retirement pensions to inflation would bring in 3.7 billion euros, according to figures from the OFCE.

In this equation in 2026, nearly 10 million households whose "reference person is retired" would see their disposable income reduced by several hundred euros, again according to the OFCE.

Several avenues have been put forward in recent months to reduce the social protection deficit (Social Security, unemployment insurance, supplementary pensions), notably through Health Insurance, which is expected to experience a gap of 16 billion euros in 2025.

At the end of June, she proposed saving 3.9 billion euros in 2026 by improving the relevance of care, combating fraud, regulating prices, strengthening prevention and reforming daily allowances.

On the pension insurance side, where the deficit is lower (around 6 billion euros in 2025), many stakeholders have called for pensioners to contribute, either by de-indexing pensions or by increasing the CSG, which could, if necessary, spare the most modest pensioners.

This would involve not reassessing the thresholds for the various brackets, which are usually automatically adjusted each year to neutralize the effects of inflation. Without adjustment, previously non-taxable households will be subject to tax, and others will see their tax levels increase—a red flag waved by several political parties.

At the beginning of 2025, the thresholds for the various brackets were reassessed, which allowed 600,000 taxpayers to avoid becoming liable for tax.

In 2026, the OFCE calculates that a freeze on the IR scale could bring in 1.2 billion euros, with an inflation assumption of 1.1%.

The Senate estimated that reforming the functioning of the "archipelago" of state operators and agencies , i.e. 434 operators, 317 advisory bodies and 1,153 national public bodies (such as Ademe - for the ecological transition -, the Bio Agency, the National Sports Agency, etc.), would save 540 million euros over several years.

But the government is thinking bigger, aiming for savings of €2 to €3 billion. Some agencies could be merged and some missions cut.

At the end of April, Matignon urged control of the increase in spending on public sector wages . A circular highlighted that the remuneration of 5.8 million public sector employees would cost €107 billion in 2024, an increase of 6.7%.

Certain so-called "categorical" measures (concerning certain categories of civil servants) alone have contributed to increasing the wage bill by 3.7 billion euros in 2024.

The government could also pull the lever of job cuts. At the beginning of June, Economy Minister Eric Lombard said he wanted to "reduce the number of civil servants," but was careful not to specify the exact number.

The Senate recommends not replacing one in two retirements in the state civil service (one of the three branches, alongside hospitals and local government), with the hoped-for 500 million euros at stake.

In 2025, after abandoning the elimination of 4,000 posts in National Education , the draft budget amended by the Senate provided for the creation of 3,076 jobs for the State and the elimination of 812 posts within operators.

Other avenues are being explored to improve public finances. Among them, the idea of "streamlining" public aid to businesses , advocated by government spokesperson Sophie Primas. According to a Senate inquiry commission, this aid reached the enormous figure of 211 billion euros in 2023.

Or tax the richest more: those earning more than €250,000 per year must currently pay a contribution that guarantees a minimum tax rate of 20% (CRDH). But the left dreams of obtaining a "Zucman tax" (inspired by the French economist Gabriel Zucman) on the 1,800 "ultra-rich" taxpayers with assets of more than €100 million, by levying 2% of this tax per year, for an annual return of €20 billion.

The idea of increasing VAT to compensate for reductions in contributions weighing on work, i.e. a "social VAT" , is strongly rejected by the left and the National Rally, the latter threatening the government with censure if it were to be adopted.

Finally, in the final stretch, La Tribune this Sunday raises new hypotheses concerning the labor market, which could allow "savings of between 5 and 10 billion euros per year" : eliminating certain public holidays, tightening the use of conventional terminations or facilitating part-time employment.