BFMTV POLL. Pensions: 63% of French people hold the government responsible for the failure of the conclave.

A day before the presentation of the results of the pension conclave, the French are not very convinced by these negotiations. Prime Minister François Bayrou stated this Wednesday, June 25, before the Senate that he would give on Thursday afternoon the results of his latest discussions on pensions with the social partners , launched after the failure of four months of consultations between the latter .

"I will continue to work with them (unions and employers, editor's note ) until tomorrow afternoon. And tomorrow afternoon, I will tell the French people what agreement we can reach," said the Prime Minister, who believes that the social partners were "just inches away from the success of the conclave."

According to a new "L'Opinion en direct" poll, conducted by the Elabe institute for BFMTV and published this Wednesday, the French primarily blame the government for the difficulties encountered during these discussions on the 2023 pension reform. According to this poll, 63% of French people believe that the government bears major responsibility for this failure, compared to 29% who hold limited responsibility and 8% who hold no responsibility.

Employers' organizations are less prominent: 47% of respondents believe they bear major responsibility for the failure of the conclave, 42% limited responsibility, and 11% no responsibility. Regarding employee unions, 39% of respondents believe they bear major responsibility, 44% limited responsibility, and 17% no responsibility.

The idea behind this conclave, called for by François Bayrou, was primarily to try to make the 2023 pension reform, which gradually raises the legal retirement age from 62 to 64, less unpopular. While also aiming for financial balance, given that the system is projected to have a deficit of €6.6 billion by 2030.

This pension reform brought hundreds of thousands of people across France into the streets in 2023. The main sticking point revolved around the recognition of professional attrition : unions saw it as an opening to early retirement, while employers favored other avenues, such as retraining.

For the rest, it was a given that the retirement age would not change: unsurprisingly, the Medef, the main employers' organization, was inflexible about maintaining it at 64.

"The employers have closed the door on the unions, particularly on the proposal that employees most exposed to hardship should not have to make the same effort as others," declared Yvan Ricordeau, negotiator for the CFDT union. "The discussion is over," he stated on Monday, announcing a "failure of the negotiations."

The conclave had already left some social partners by the wayside: the Force Ouvrière (FO) union had turned tail at the first session. This was followed in mid-March by another employees' union, the CGT (General Confederation of Workers), and the U2P (Urban Employers' Union), the employers' association for artisans.

Faced with this failure, the Socialist Party will "move towards censure" of the government if François Bayrou does not give Parliament the final say on pensions, warned Socialist Party First Secretary Olivier Faure on RMC-BFMTV on Tuesday. The conclave was the result of a compromise reached with the Socialists to avoid censure of the government during the 2025 budget vote. And the Prime Minister had pledged to present its conclusions to Parliament.

According to the survey, two out of three French people (67%) believe that the approach taken by François Bayrou was a "political stunt" to gain time and avoid censure by the Socialist Party. The remainder (32% of those surveyed) see it as a sincere approach to achieving a new, more widely accepted reform.

The threat of censure is therefore looming for the government. More than one in two French people are now in favor of it. 52% (+5 points since a poll conducted at the end of May) of French people want this motion of censure to be adopted by the National Assembly, including 29% (+4) who are in favor and 23% (+1) who are completely in favor. Conversely, 47% (-5) do not want it.

This desire for censure is in the majority among left-wing and RN voters and is growing strongly among right-wing voters (mainly LR): 43% are in favour, i.e. 18 points more than at the end of May.

Following the failure of the conclave, the French are divided on the path to take regarding pensions. However, the preferred option is a referendum (38%), ahead of dialogue between the government, employee unions, and employer organizations (23%).

This is followed by the renunciation of any new reform (17%) and the adoption of a reform through parliamentary channels (15%). Only 6% of respondents suggest relaunching a second conclave under the same conditions (6%).

On Wednesday afternoon, the Prime Minister's office announced that François Bayrou will hold a press conference on Thursday at 5 p.m. "to draw conclusions from his discussions" with social partners on pensions.