France's Recognition of the Palestinian State: Why This Gesture (Perhaps) Changes the Game

It's a landmark announcement. On July 24, 2025, Emmanuel Macron took everyone by surprise by announcing that France would recognize the State of Palestine at the next United Nations General Assembly in New York in September.

A strong, highly political gesture, which Paris had never dared to make in nearly 35 years of verbal support for the two-state solution.

Could this decision, which propels France among the European heavyweights to have taken the plunge, reshuffle the cards in the Middle East? Here are some explanations.

A major political gesture

This is a first for a G7 member . By recognizing a State of Palestine, France is breaking with its cautious diplomatic tradition. Until now, it considered such a decision premature without progress on the ground. But the context has changed.

More than 140 countries have already recognized Palestine, including several European countries recently (Spain, Norway, Ireland, Slovenia). Paris, which had previously been waiting, has now chosen to act and no longer simply support.

In her sights: an international conference in New York, which she will co-chair on July 28 and 29 with Saudi Arabia to try to relaunch the peace process.

A response to an impasse

The war in Gaza drags on, civilian deaths number in the tens of thousands, settlement activity in the West Bank reaches new heights, and negotiations are at an impasse. The latest ceasefire attempt in Doha has failed.

It is in this context that Mahmoud Abbas sent to France, in a letter dated June 9, 2025, several written commitments , including the demilitarization of Gaza and the organization of elections in 2026.

Although they do not constitute formal recognition of Israel by the Palestinian Authority, these commitments outline its contours.

Emmanuel Macron sees this as an opportunity to be seized: "We must finally build the State of Palestine, ensure its viability and ensure that by accepting its demilitarization and fully recognizing Israel, it contributes to the security of all in the Middle East."

For Emmanuel Macron, this recognition aims to "save the two-state solution" before it vanishes once and for all. A diplomatic lever to be used while a window of opportunity remains.

Strengthened voice for Palestinians, pressure on Israel

Concretely, this recognition does not change the situation on the ground, but it strengthens the legitimacy of Palestine on the international scene... and could encourage other countries that are still hesitant to take the step.

The Israeli reaction was immediate: "a reward for terror," the government denounced. But for France, this gesture is, on the contrary, a way of marginalizing Hamas, a declared enemy of the two-state solution. "France agrees with the peace camp," affirmed Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot.

This initiative could have a domino effect. If Berlin remains reluctant, other capitals—Lisbon, Brussels, Luxembourg—could follow.

In 2014, several European parliaments had already voted in favor, without any government action. France could unlock this diplomatic obstacle.

A risky bet

This decision is not without consequences. It could further strain Franco-Israeli relations and weaken Paris's position as mediator. It also relies on a gamble: that the Palestinian Authority will keep its promises.

But for Emmanuel Macron, it's now or never. He is thus marking a historic shift in French diplomacy, which, without denying its support for Israel, is clearly taking a stand for full recognition of Palestine.

A deliberate break with the equidistance posture that had prevailed for decades. A choice that, while it doesn't yet change the situation, could well reshuffle the diplomatic deck.