In New Caledonia, independence supporters close to rejecting the Bougival agreement

It took just a week for the veneer of unity to crumble and reveal the first disagreements surrounding the "historic" agreement signed on July 12 in Bougival (Yvelines) between the pro-independence and non-pro-independence groups of New Caledonia. On Monday, July 21, members of the executive committee of the Caledonian Union (UC), the main component of the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), announced that they would not support the text as it stands .

Upon returning from Paris, the negotiating team, led by the party's president and signatory, MP Emmanuel Tjibaou, failed to convince them. The UC delegates consider that "the fundamentals of the Kanak people's struggle are not reflected there" , notably the possibility of one day escaping "from the colonial yoke" . The advances that this compromise would offer towards the independence of the archipelago, such as the recognition of a State and Caledonian nationality, are in their eyes only "facade attributes of sovereignty" .

"Nationality is not one, because subject to French nationality, the transfer of sovereign powers presents insurmountable obstacles, international recognition is not clearly specified and finally the thawing of the electoral body is synonymous with the recolonization of our country," writes the secretary general of the UC, Dominique Fochi.

Meeting in the political bureau on Tuesday, July 22, the various FLNKS "pressure groups" also expressed a "very reserved opinion" on the agreement. "It is obvious that the path towards full sovereignty of the country lacks clear perspectives," they regret, pointing to "the omnipresence of the State at each of the stages to be crossed" to achieve it. The movement's authorities are due to meet this weekend to decide on their respective positions on the agreement, before an FLNKS convention, scheduled for August 2, at which a common line will be adopted.

These statements come in the wake of repeated criticism since July 12th within the pro-independence camp , against a document deemed too far removed from the proposal made by Manuel Valls at the beginning of May in Deva , which was supposed to serve as a "negotiating floor" for those seeking full sovereignty. "66 times the word New Caledonia, zero times the word Kanaky […] And there are still some who will say that it is a good agreement" , had already deplored the Movement of Oceanian Independence Prosecutors.

The absence of the signature of Christian Tein, president of the FLNKS , also exasperates the activists. Imprisoned for a year in mainland France for his alleged role in the riots of May 2024 before being released in June , he closely followed the sequence of negotiations in Bougival. But his role in the last-minute validation of the agreement by the Front delegation remains uncertain. He has until now remained very discreet. "The president of the FLNKS told us that we must communicate," Emmanuel Tjibaou simply stated, during a press conference organized on July 18 by the negotiating team. A first official statement, which already had the air of backpedaling: "It is indeed a draft agreement on the future of New Caledonia on which we have put our signatures, not a definitive agreement," affirmed Aloisio Sako, one of the five signatories of the delegation.

This about-turn by radical separatists led Manuel Valls, on a trip to French Polynesia, to warn of the risk of "chaos" and "social explosion" that would result from the rejection of the agreement, on which Caledonians will be called to express their views in February 2026. More than a year after the riots that shook the archipelago, concerns of a resurgence of violence are growing, fueled by a series of acts of delinquency that have shaken the territory in recent days.

Urban violence was observed this weekend in the working-class neighborhoods of Nouméa, where the May 2024 insurrectional crisis began. The phenomenon has also reached other communes in Brousse (rural areas). In the North (whose province is ruled by the separatists), several arson attacks occurred, first in a company in Koné, then in a bus depot in Poya. Although it is not possible to directly link this to the signing of an agreement, these events are fueling a climate of tension among the population. The situation has prompted the mayors of five communes to sign a press release calling on the State for an "immediate and coordinated response" to what they consider to be a "rise in crime."

"These abuses are not isolated incidents: they are the symptom of a deeply fractured territory," believes the local branch of the National Rally. Opposed to the agreement signed in Bougival, the far-right party sees these acts as the consequences of a compromise that "divides" and "fails to restore order . " "Signing an agreement, however important it may be, is not a guarantee of security. The State knows this and must act accordingly," also commented Nina Julié, a non-independence elected representative of the Southern Province (with a loyalist majority). The High Commission announced the strengthening of the security measures of the national police and the gendarmerie in order to "be more visible and responsive throughout the territory."