New Caledonia: Macron opens summit in Paris amid ongoing uncertainties for the archipelago

In New Caledonia, the fault lines between pro-independence supporters and loyalists remain deep, as Emmanuel Macron opens a summit this Wednesday to discuss the archipelago's political and economic future. The head of state is scheduled to address the territory's political delegations at 3 p.m. at the Élysée Palace, before they depart for a hotel in Bougival (Yvelines), where discussions will continue behind closed doors until the weekend, with no set deadline.

The presidential approach "aims to establish a dialogue that guarantees a lasting political, social and cultural balance, adapted to the Caledonian reality," affirmed the Élysée, which wishes to "go beyond the logic of opposition to build a shared, balanced and sustainable future." The objective is to relaunch institutional, but also economic and social, discussions in a territory still bloodless after the violence of May 2024 , which left 14 dead and cost more than 15% of its GDP .

But the content and schedule of the "Summit for the Future of New Caledonia" remain unclear. "Hybrid" sessions with economic, social, and civil society stakeholders are planned for the day. Political negotiations will take place in the evening and over the weekend. "In the country, we're asking a lot of questions about the relevance of this format," stressed pro-independence MP Emmanuel Tjibaou, who believes that "the method that has so far kept people at the table is being called into question."

The head of state wanted to relaunch dialogue after the failure of the Deva negotiations in May, which saw the pro-independence and pro-loyalist delegations leave without reaching an agreement after three days of "conclave" under the aegis of Overseas Minister Manuel Valls . Since then, "the thread of dialogue" has not been broken, noted the Overseas Minister, who wants to believe that an agreement is still possible: "We need civil peace, we need long-term stability. Everyone is aware of this on both sides."

But the positions remain radically opposed. The "sovereignty with France" project proposed in May by Manuel Valls —including dual nationality and a delegation of sovereign powers—has angered non-independence supporters. "We cannot start a new round of negotiations that repeats what Manuel Valls proposed," warned a loyalist source: "The President of the Republic has announced that he will propose a new project. We are waiting for him to present it to us."

Loyalist MP Nicolas Metzdorf, however, stated that he had come to "try to find a compromise with the state and its pro-independence partners." He also called for greater clarity on the state's vision. "What we're waiting for is an ambition for New Caledonia. What does France want for New Caledonia, what prospects does France want to give it?" he said.

On the pro-independence side, the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) reiterated that no compromise could be considered "below" the base proposed in Deva. "You'll know right away whether it's a long shot or not," Emmanuel Tjibaou said on Tuesday, calling for "a definitive status that takes into account the aspirations of the Kanak people."

For his part, the President of the Republic remains discreet about his real intentions. One year after the riots, local elected officials are concerned about a still-tense climate, but above all, about a persistent economic crisis. A large part of the discussions will be devoted to the economy and the future of nickel, the archipelago's strategic resource. Because "even a political agreement will not prevent us from having to address immense challenges," Manuel Valls said, emphasizing the risk of "social implosion" in the archipelago.