Unemployment insurance reform, pensioners' contributions: what savings are on the table before François Bayrou's announcements this Tuesday?

The hypothesis, which is constantly being raised, would be to continue certain expenses identically between 2025 and 2026, without any increase. But the resources expected from this source of savings vary significantly depending on the scope chosen.

According to the Senate Finance Committee, freezing state spending on its budgetary missions (excluding defense, contributions to the EU budget, and debt repayments) between 2025 and 2026 could generate €10 billion.

According to the French Economic Observatory (OFCE) and the Institute of Public Policy (IPP), a blank year could save between 5.7 and 6 billion euros.

De-index pensions

The idea of de-indexing retirement pensions in relation to inflation is gaining ground, reinforced by a proposal to this effect from the Pensions Monitoring Committee (CSR), and supported by several parliamentarians from the government camp.

In the context of a "blank year" , refraining from indexing retirement pensions to inflation would bring in 3.7 billion euros, according to figures from the OFCE.

In this equation in 2026, nearly 10 million households whose "reference person is retired" would see their disposable income reduced by several hundred euros, again according to the OFCE.

Reduce social protection

Several avenues have been put forward in recent months to reduce the social protection deficit (Social Security, unemployment insurance, supplementary pensions), notably through Health Insurance, which is expected to experience a gap of 16 billion euros in 2025.

At the end of June, she proposed saving 3.9 billion euros in 2026 by improving the relevance of care, combating fraud, regulating prices, strengthening prevention and reforming daily allowances.

On the old-age insurance side, where the deficit is lower (around 6 billion euros in 2025), many players have called for pensioners to contribute , either by de-indexing pensions or by increasing the CSG, which could, if necessary, spare the most modest pensioners.

According to Les Echos, the government is also considering further tightening of unemployment insurance rules.

Freeze the income tax scale

This would involve not re-evaluating the thresholds of the different bands which are usually adjusted automatically each year to neutralize the effects of inflation.

Without adjustment, previously non-taxable households will be subject to tax and others will see their tax level increase, a red flag waved by several political parties.

At the beginning of 2025, the thresholds for the various brackets were reassessed, which allowed 600,000 taxpayers to avoid becoming liable for tax.

In 2026, the OFCE calculates that a freeze on the IR scale could bring in 1.2 billion euros, with an inflation assumption of 1.1%.

Reform agencies and operators

The Senate estimated that reforming the functioning of the "archipelago" of state operators and agencies, i.e. 434 operators, 317 advisory bodies and 1,153 national public bodies (such as Ademe - for the ecological transition -, the Organic Agency, the National Sports Agency, etc.), would save 540 million euros over several years.

But the government is thinking bigger, aiming for savings of €2 to €3 billion. Some agencies could be merged and some missions cut.

Limit public sector spending

At the end of April, Prime Minister Matignon urged governments to control the increase in public sector payroll spending. A circular highlighted that the remuneration of 5.8 million public sector employees would cost €107 billion in 2024, an increase of 6.7%.

Certain so-called "categorical" measures (concerning certain categories of civil servants) alone have contributed to increasing the wage bill by 3.7 billion euros in 2024.

The government could also use the lever of job cuts. At the beginning of June, Economy Minister Eric Lombard said he wanted to " reduce the number of civil servants," but was careful not to specify the exact number.

The Senate recommends not replacing one in two retirements in the state civil service (one of the three branches, alongside hospitals and local government, editor's note), with the hoped-for 500 million euros at stake.

In 2025, after abandoning the elimination of 4,000 posts in National Education, the draft budget amended by the Senate provided for the creation of 3,076 jobs for the State and the elimination of 812 posts within operators.

And also...

Other avenues are being considered to improve public finances.

Among them, the "rationalization" of public aid to businesses , advocated by government spokesperson Sophie Primas. According to a Senate inquiry commission, this aid was worth 211 billion euros in 2023.

Or tax the richest more: those earning more than €250,000 per year must currently pay a contribution that guarantees a minimum tax rate of 20% (CRDH). But the left dreams of obtaining a "Zucman tax" (inspired by the French economist Gabriel Zucman) on the 1,800 "ultra-rich" taxpayers with assets of more than €100 million, by levying 2% per year, for an annual return of €20 billion.

The idea of increasing VAT to compensate for reductions in contributions weighing on employment, i.e. a "social VAT", is strongly rejected by the left and the National Rally, the latter threatening the government with censure if it were to be adopted.