Progress but no agreement, not even on a ceasefire

High-sounding adjectives, optimistic tones on both sides. A desire to expand trade relations and a desire to reach a solution to the war in Ukraine. But for now, not even what Trump would have wanted: the possibility of an immediate ceasefire. In short, beyond the smiles and good intentions, nothing is leaking about the agreement. If there is any positive element, it is linked to the easing of tensions between the two countries, who are ready for a new meeting. But it won't be the "trilateral" one, with Zelensky in attendance, who is unlikely to attend the Moscow meeting, the one to which Putin invited The Donald. There are some signs, however, that the summit did not end well. Dinner was also cancelled, and the two left Anchorage early.

Putin speaks first in a press conference that, in effect, is merely a joint statement, without questions. And it's clear. He's happy, and it shows, because this meeting has rehabilitated him internationally. And he speaks clearly. Convinced of Trump's desire to end the conflict, he states that he too cares about ending the war against the Ukrainians, with whom "there is a brotherhood." But he doesn't budge an inch on the need to secure security for his country. And the signal is clear, even if it doesn't appear so. Trump states that he will call NATO and Zelensky to "get them to accept the agreement," but that agreement stipulates—this is quite clear—that Ukraine must never join NATO and Europe. Ukraine's security, therefore, is closely tied to that of Russia.

Trump receives Putin's gratitude, and is even flattered. "I told Biden that certain positions could have serious consequences"—the war in Ukraine, ed.—"And I'm truly convinced that, as Trump said, if he had been in the White House, we wouldn't be in this situation." Then Putin moves on to something else, to the need to build trade relations, to be "good neighbors," shifting the discussion to less complicated issues that create other problems for Trump, who, at this stage, imposes sanctions on those who don't activate them for Russia and now finds himself in the position of having to ease them himself. A difficult position to defend in a Western context.

After Putin, Donald Trump spoke. He thanked Putin and talked about many points that had been reached. "We had an extremely productive meeting, and many points were agreed upon. Only a few remain. Some aren't that significant, one is probably the most significant, but we have a very good chance of getting there. We haven't gotten there, but we have a very good chance of getting there."

But then he admits: "There's an agreement when there's an agreement." So, probably, what's being drawn up is essentially a path. Small steps forward and, after meetings with their delegates, for the first time the two leaders discuss the real possibilities. And that's why the need for a phone call to NATO and Zelensky is needed to present them with concrete possibilities for ending the conflict. And both fear, because they say it in different words, that the obvious risk is that those options will be rejected. So Trump goes so far as to say: "I'll call NATO and Zelensky and all the necessary people, and they'll have to accept the agreement." While Putin states, more diplomatically: "I hope Europe doesn't stand in the way."

A meeting of European ambassadors is scheduled for today. The agenda was supposed to include a discussion of the Anchorage outcome, but there's nothing to discuss at the moment. Except for Russia's demands, which, it seems, haven't changed much.

To understand whether anything has truly changed, we'll have to wait for the next few hours, perhaps even for Trump's phone call to European leaders and the one to Zelensky. There's a clear risk: that at this point the United States will slowly distance itself from the Ukraine issue, reducing concrete aid, to convince the rest of the West to accept a proposal that can satisfy Putin's demands.