Duties, between optimism and uncertainty
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Agreements improve forecasts, but it will take more than a few extra-duty suspensions to restore confidence in America
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Goldman Sachs was one of the first to predict the negative impact on the world economy of the tariffs announced by Trump on Liberation Day. A little over a month has passed and the investment bank, following the agreement on the suspension of tariffs between the United States and China, has updated its forecasts, adding a little more optimism . For the Eurozone, which has not yet reached an agreement with Washington, it expects growth in the third and fourth quarter of 0.2 percent of GDP compared to the stagnation previously forecast, and this is due to both growth abroad (exports) and the drop in interest rates. Not much, but better than the feared recession. The positive effect on the United Kingdom, which has reached an agreement with Trump, is more marked : Goldman predicts a cumulative increase of 0.6 percent of GDP for the second and fourth quarter, compared to the previous estimate of 0.4 percent. These deviations, although minimal, make two things clear. The first is that Trump's backtracking has already had an effect on economic indicators, the second is that the economy and the markets are coming to terms with the age of uncertainty .
An analysis by Gam observes, in fact, that the bilateral “agreements-non-agreements” between the United States and various countries are generating a level of confusion even at the level of central banks, which are no longer able to accurately predict whether inflation will rise or fall. The Fed's approach in this period is an example of this . Even investors, says Gam, no longer know what to do: whether to bet that everything will work out for the best, or prepare for the worst. If the recovery of Wall Street, and of the world's stock markets, suggests a return of optimism among investors, the constant turbulence on the market of American government bonds (the thirty-year continues to have a yield close to 5 percent) says, instead, that fear has not passed and that more than a few suspensions of extra-duties are needed to restore confidence in America .
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