In referendums, quorum is difficult, a third of Italians do not know that they are voting

For the four questions on work and citizenship brought together in the referendum of June 8 and 9 , it will be very difficult to reach the quorum. According to the polls, less than 40% of those entitled to vote will go to vote, a figure far from the 50% plus one needed to make the result of the consultations valid.

Part of this data is also due to the lack of information. More than a third of Italians do not know that in less than a month the referendum will be held. There is little uncertainty about the results, the victory of the yes is practically certain.

The quorum issue for the referendums on June 8 and 9

According to a recent Ipsos poll, the referendums on citizenship and work that will be held between June 8 and 9 will reach a turnout between 32% and 38% . For an abrogative referendum to be valid in Italy, voters must be 50%+1, a circumstance that has occurred very few times in the history of the republic.

It is for this reason that the parties opposed to the approval of the questions, rather than campaigning for a “no” vote in the referendums, are in favour of abstention , which is easier to obtain and more effective, but above all does not risk validating the result of the opposing factions.

The questions of June 8 and 9 are divided into two. Those on work, promoted by the unions, aim to repeal a good part of what remains of the Jobs Act , the labor reform desired by Renzi . In particular, the contract with increasing protections would be abolished.

The citizenship referendum, on the other hand, was promoted by an independent committee and aims to halve, from 10 to 5 years, the period of continuous residence in Italy, necessary for people who have fulfilled all the other requirements to become Italian citizens.

Job Referendums Popular on the Right, Too

The outcome of the referendum is obvious. Those who want to vote no will abstain, so the polls show a predictable victory for the yes vote with percentages between 79% and 87% on work . In fact, only people who are in favor of one question, but not another, could vote no.

Interesting, however, are some percentages of the individual questions on work, broken down by the political parties to which the people who responded to the survey belong. Among the voters of the majority parties, a percentage of around 40% would have a very high or high propensity to vote. A figure that rises to almost 80% in the opposition parties.

Among those who are inclined to vote among the voters of the majority parties, the most popular questions are those on the abolition of the contract with increasing protections, of some norms on permanent contracts and on the responsibilities in terms of safety at work . Less inclined to say yes, but still on average over 50% , are instead for the question on compensation after illegitimate dismissals from small businesses.

Citizenship referendum polls

The citizenship question is the least popular overall. Among those who have decided to vote, about 66% are convinced they will choose “yes.” A percentage supported with overwhelming numbers, between 76% and 85%, by voters of the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party .

Among the majority, however, the issue is rather unpopular . The citizenship reform collects the least consensus (16%) among the voters of the League and remains below 50% among those of Fratelli d'Italia (31%) and Forza Italia (41%).