Italy will produce 20% more wheat in 2025

Good news for the 2025 durum wheat campaign in Italy: after a decline in 2024, this year national production is expected to exceed 4.2 million tons, 20% more than last year. The data will be presented today in Foggia during the Durum Days, attended by Assosementi, Cia-Agricoltori italiani, Confagricoltura, Copagri, Fedagripesca Confcooperative, Compag, Italmopa, Unionfood, Crea and Areté.

The increase in Italian production of durum wheat – the type used to make pasta – is linked both to the expansion of cultivated areas, up 9.5% nationwide according to Istat, and to particularly favorable conditions in Sicily, Basilicata and part of Puglia. For the world of farmers, the increase in the national harvest is good news: «Even more than the 20% increase compared to the last campaign, which was not a happy one, the real good news is that this year's harvest will be 12% higher than the average recorded in the last five years», explains Raffaele Drei, president of Fedagripesca Confcooperative. According to whom the conditional is still a must: «The harvest is still a long way off, a good month and a half in which heat waves or heavy rains can change the picture negatively. Let's say we remain optimistic».

The 2025 campaign initially got off to a difficult start. According to Crea, in the Center-North, sowing was delayed due to heavy rains, and in some areas, water stagnation made subsequent agronomic practices difficult. Sowing operations were also delayed in the South, in this case due to the lack of rain in November. And although above-average winter temperatures accelerated the cycle, regular rainfall ultimately favored crop growth.

While the Italian harvest outlook is for growth, the international picture currently seems less rosy. According to Areté, after the increase recorded last year, global durum wheat production is expected to decline due to lower harvests in exporting countries in North America, which would not be offset by higher production in importing countries. In particular, in Canada yields are expected to fall by 7%, in the United States by 9% and in Mexico by as much as 78%.

With such a picture – Italian production growing and world harvests slightly decreasing – everything would suggest an increase in the prices of national wheat. «We are still in an initial phase – says Drei – but Italian farmers can expect prices to recover. For too long in our country we have been experiencing a decline in prices that is starting to be difficult to justify. Prices today are at such a level that they risk calling into question the very sustainability of wheat cultivation».