New OECD data: Italy unsurprising, nothing new on the financial front

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The OECD's new estimates on international economic performance, released today, paint a picture of a world that continues to grow but is simultaneously losing momentum. The start of 2025 exceeded analysts' expectations, driven by investments in artificial intelligence and the "frontloading" of trade ahead of the introduction of US tariffs . However, the acceleration of US trade policy and tariff wars could continue to slow international trade. The result, according to the organization, will be global GDP growth declining from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025, and to 2.9 percent in 2026.

In the United States, in fact, the technology engine is not enough to offset the tightening of trade: the OECD estimates that American GDP will fall from 2.8 percent in 2024 to 1.8 percent in 2025, and to 1.5 percent in 2026 , with higher tariffs and the decline in net immigration eroding the investment push . The euro area is growing even more slowly : after 0.8 percent in 2024, growth is forecast at 1.2 percent in 2025 (a +0.2 percent revision compared to the June estimates) and then slowing to 1.0 percent in 2026, balancing trade frictions and geopolitical uncertainties with easier credit conditions thanks to the start of the ECB's interest rate cuts. For China , the Paris-based organization expects growth to decelerate from 4.9 percent in 2025 to 4.4 percent in 2026, when the anticipatory effect on consumption and trade will wear off, and the increase in tariffs will be fully felt.

Furthermore, the global slowdown is accompanied by a decline in price increases : in the Eurozone, inflation will go from 2.4 percent in 2024 to 2.1 percent in 2025 and to 1.9 percent in 2026. In Italy, inflation will go from 1.1 percent in 2024 to 1.9 percent in 2025, before falling slightly to 1.8 percent in 2026. Istat, in its report “The outlook for the Italian economy in 2025 - 2026”, estimates an increase in the household spending deflator also thanks to the cooling of energy prices and weak demand, forecasting inflation at 1.8 percent in 2025, and 1.6 percent in 2026 according to the June estimates.

Speaking of growth, according to the OECD, the Italian economy will record a 0.7 percent increase in GDP in 2024, followed by an increase of 0.6 percent in both 2025 and 2026. Istat's projections are slightly more optimistic: according to the Istat report, after two consecutive years of growth (2023 and 2024) of 0.7 percent, Italian GDP is expected to increase by 0.6 percent in 2025 and 0.8 percent in 2026. The institute emphasizes that growth in the next two years would be supported exclusively by domestic demand , while net foreign demand would remain negative (-0.2 and -0.1 percentage points in 2025 and 2026) due to trade tensions arising from American tariffs. Private consumption is projected to rise by 0.7 percent in both years, boosted by wage and employment growth but held back by the increased propensity to save. Among European peers, Germany and France are experiencing stagnation, while Spain maintains above-average growth.

The combination of US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and the risk of financial instability could further dampen hopes if new shocks were to materialize. Meanwhile, tariff relief, stronger trade agreements for the EU, and faster adoption of artificial intelligence and increased related investments could reignite growth.

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