Tariffs: The first EU countermeasures will be announced on August 6th. The second list includes airplanes, cars, and bourbon.

BRUSSELS – If and when the need arises, Europe says, it will retaliate against the United States. But the acceleration called for by some governments, particularly the French one, and assured by the Commission in the wake of Trump's new attack, already appears less decisive now that negotiations are being attempted again .

First counter-duties on August 6th

The first clue is related to the timing and concerns the "old" package of countertariffs ranging between 10 and 25% on $21 billion of American products, already approved weeks ago in response to the US tariffs on steel and aluminum but put on hold again on Monday to facilitate dialogue. Yesterday, the Commission confirmed that, even in the event of a no-deal situation, the customs duties would not be triggered on August 1st—the date the 30% US tariffs would take effect—but only on the 6th. This procedural choice suggests a desire not to trigger an immediate reaction, to gain a few more days of negotiations, and to possibly give the White House some leeway for reconsideration, as already occurred with the reciprocal tariffs. However, this choice risks weakening the force of the threat.

The new 72 billion package

Activation of the new and larger €72 billion package, which in recent days had been speculated to be implemented simultaneously with the first, could take even longer. Yesterday, the Commission said its use will be assessed "based on the evolution of negotiations."

The list of American imports to be targeted, already the subject of four weeks of consultations with industry and governments, was shared with the 27 EU Member States on Monday evening for further comment. While the first package primarily targeted iconic American products—such as Harley-Davidsons and jeans—and goods originating from Republican states—such as soybeans and chemicals—this second package significantly broadens the scope. Three criteria were considered: response to American tariffs, the presence of alternative import sources, and the protection of sectors where production is at risk of moving to the United States.

From Boeing to bourbon

Approximately 6.4 billion are agricultural and food products, especially vegetables and alcoholic beverages (read: bourbon). But the largest portion, 65.8 billion, is made up of industrial products. Airplanes alone—read: Boeing—are worth 10.9 billion, followed by machinery (9.4), automobiles (almost 8), chemical products, medical devices, and electrical appliances.

The European wine lobby was the first to protest: Trump promised counterretaliation on the affected sectors. You tax whiskey, I tax Champagne and Chianti. In theory, various European countries, as they have already done in recent weeks to protect their companies, could request the removal of products from the list, which was initially worth €95 billion. In practice, the Commission considers the agreement already reached to be solid. And it believes that, when and if necessary, the tariffs can be approved and activated very quickly, within a day. Its exclusive jurisdiction over trade gives it the power to control the procedure, which only a qualified majority of countries can block.

Units under test

This unity, however, should be tested at the moment of truth, that of actual retaliation. Also because—and this is no small detail— the list does not include the amount of countertariffs to be applied, on which the opinions of more lenient and more hardline governments could diverge . The strategy, in short, seems to be, even if the American trap were to be triggered on August 1st, a gradual response. This is in the interest of negotiation, not deterrence.