The weight of tariffs is starting to be felt. And Trump attacks Powell (Dimon defends him).

Not much, but the effect of the tariffs on prices is already starting to be felt.

The number: +2.7% . Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Labor released inflation data for June , which showed a 2.7% increase over the previous year, higher than the 2.4% increase recorded in May.

Since it's not surprising... All economists were expecting it, so the figure didn't come as a surprise; in fact, it was even slightly lower than the analysts' consensus .

...but it sends a signal . It was confirmation, however, that President Trump's tariffs are starting to take effect and that companies are beginning, for now only partially, to pass the customs increases on to consumers.

What costs the most ? The most significant increases were in the prices of toys , with the highest increases from 2021 to today, furniture and sports equipment (since 2022), and household appliances (over the last five years), but the cost of clothing also rose.

All items and products that tend to be more sensitive to tariffs, even if most of the impact seems to have been absorbed by companies for now.

Walmart's warning . In mid-May, the retail giant Walmart was the first to announce that it would raise prices following the new regulations introduced by Trump, starting at the end of that month or at least during the summer.

The CFO's words . "The magnitude and speed with which these increases are hitting us are unprecedented in history," declared John David Rainey , Walmart's chief financial officer , but he also warned that the impact of the trade war on consumers is still limited.

Under control, but... And in fact, the June increase remains within an acceptable limit ; in fact, many analysts breathed a sigh of relief when they saw that their estimates were not exceeded. But the feeling is that the worst is truly yet to come .

Trump's Latest Moves . In recent days, the Trump administration has stepped up its tariff threats against its major trading partners, announcing that starting August 1, the United States will apply 30% tariffs on products from Mexico and the European Union .

The difficulty of forecasting . All economists agree that tariffs will increase prices , but they are not in agreement on what the impact will be and when it will begin to be fully felt. This is also because many companies have accumulated stocks of products in the United States, effectively postponing the effects of the measures.

Citi and inflation . Experts at the US bank Citi predict "further increases in goods prices in the coming months" and calculate that inflation could rise to 3.2% as early as September and continue to rise until the end of the year.

Bankers' doubts . The June inflation figure, however, doesn't even dispel the Fed's doubts , because it leaves room for both the doves , who say rates must be cut immediately because inflation hasn't exploded, and the hawks , who oppose any intervention without clear evidence.

What the market expects . The impact of tariffs on prices is currently not so great as to change the most widespread forecasts among traders, who are calling for two rate cuts between now and the end of the year, starting in September. This means that in two weeks, the Fed should leave rates unchanged.

"Wait and see." Given the high level of uncertainty, the "wait and see" approach announced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell , which Trump has repeatedly stated he wants to change, seems appropriate. It involves assessing inflation and labor market data on a case-by-case basis and then adjusting the cost of money.

Trump's new attack . President Trump, however, did not fail to put the pressure on Powell, attacking him again on his Social Truth following the inflation data: "LOW consumer prices. Lower the Fed rate , NOW!!!"

And in another place he added that “The Fed should cut rates by 3 points . Inflation is very low. We will save a trillion dollars in a year.”

The situation . Today, the Fed rate is at 4.5% and the US pays $749 billion in interest annually on its debt, equal to $36.5 trillion, of which $28 trillion is placed on the market.

The FOMC . At its latest meeting, most members of the Federal Reserve Committee (FOMC) indicated they wanted to wait until the inflationary impact of tariffs was clearer before proceeding with any reduction, while only two members said they were open to a cut as early as this month.

Dimon's support for the Fed . Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, the world's largest bank, also weighed in on the issue, not on rate cuts, but on the Fed's independence.

"From what I've seen, the president has said he doesn't intend to remove Jay Powell. The independence of the Fed is absolutely crucial , not only for the current Fed chair, whom I respect, but also for the next chair. Gaming the Fed can often have negative consequences, the exact opposite of what one might hope."