Why is gasoline rising, we pay more but it has nothing to do with the war in Iran?

Speculation and rising prices seem to be a never-ending nightmare. According to a joint analysis by the Center for Training and Research on Consumption (Crc) and Assoutenti, the Iran-Israel war could have a significant impact on the costs borne by Italian families. As happened with the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, also in this case geopolitical tensions are being exploited as a pretext for speculative increases in the prices of energy products, even in the absence of effective blocks to the production or circulation of resources.

Fuel price increase

The first effects have already been seen at the pump. Compared to the first week of June, the average price of gasoline has increased by 6 cents per liter, raising the cost of a full tank by about 3 euros. The increase in diesel fuel is even more marked, with an average increase of 8.5 cents per liter, which translates into an increase of about 4.2 euros per full tank.

According to the CRC, the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage for the transport of oil, could cause the price of crude oil to soar to $100 a barrel. This scenario would bring gasoline to an average price of 2.024 euros per liter , with an increase of 16.7 euros per tank compared to the values ​​of early June, and an increase in annual expenditure of 402 euros for those who fill up twice a month. Diesel, on the other hand, would reach 1.953 euros per liter , resulting in an increase of 18.4 euros per tank, equal to 442 euros per year per motorist.

“The increases to date are largely speculative, given that the increase in oil prices should not lead to immediate increases in pump prices,” said Furio Truzzi, president of the scientific committee of the CRC. “If anything, Platt's plays a fundamental role in the formation of petrol and diesel prices, and it is here that speculative phenomena are hidden, which exploit situations such as ongoing war conflicts to make petroleum product prices soar.”

Impact on energy bills

Not just fuel. The conflict could also be reflected in electricity and gas rates . Assoutenti reports that a 10% increase in energy rates, considering the current conditions of the vulnerability regime regulated by Arera, would increase the gas bill by about 120 euros per year per user. For electricity, the average increase would be about 61 euros per year for a standard consumption of 1,100 cubic meters.

In the free market, where rates are on average higher, the impact would be even more marked. In this case, the 10% increase would translate into an annual increase of about 160 euros for the gas bill and about 70 euros for electricity, for each domestic user.

Effects on consumer goods and food expenditure

Another aspect to take into consideration concerns the prices of goods transported by road. Variations in fuel costs directly influence the retail price of many products. According to Gabriele Melluso, president of Assoutenti, “The war in Iran also risks causing generalized increases in the prices of products transported by road which, as is known, are affected by fuel fluctuations”.

In the food sector alone, an average price increase of 0.5% would lead to an increase in spending for Italian families estimated at over 800 million euros . An impact that could extend to other sectors of distribution, further aggravating the family budget.

The estimates developed by Crc and Assoutenti therefore offer an overview of future scenarios, which, in the event of further worsening of the conflict, could become concrete realities for consumers and businesses. The economic repercussions could manifest themselves on various fronts, from transport to energy, to basic necessities.