Carlos Peña: The Red Swan, chaos and control in a fractured world

The “black swan” metaphor, coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, has been key to understanding unpredictable events shaking global markets. Then came the “green swan,” linked to climate risks. Today, the “red swan” emerges, a phenomenon that encapsulates the convergence of multiple interconnected crises: territorial wars, trade tensions, financial instability, climate disasters and the rise of organized crime.

This red swan is not an isolated event, but a network of factors that generate uncertainty and redefine the global order under a cloak of authoritarianism and control.

Wars, such as the one in Ukraine, have destabilized entire regions and disrupted supply chains, exacerbating inflation and shortages.

Tensions between the United States and China have created a scenario of deglobalization, where the competition for technological and economic supremacy has become a fight for global hegemony. Added to this are climate disasters, which are no longer a distant threat, but a reality that strikes with droughts, floods and extreme phenomena, affecting agricultural production and social stability.

In this context, organized crime has found a fertile breeding ground. However, under the influence of figures such as Donald Trump, the United States has intensified its rhetoric and actions to combat these groups, calling them “terrorists” and pressuring countries such as Mexico to strengthen the fight against the cartels. This strategy seeks not only to eradicate drug trafficking, but also to impose a new order based on strong governance and bilateral cooperation. Although this pressure has generated tensions, it has also highlighted the need to address the structural roots of criminality: poverty, inequality and lack of opportunities.

The United States, under this approach, emerges as a key player in the redefinition of global power.

American diplomacy, with Trump as its central figure, has adopted a disruptive style: aggressive negotiations, unilateral imposition of conditions and a constant strategy of “checking” to keep its rivals off balance. This approach does not seek to preserve the traditional liberal order, but to impose a new paradigm of control and authority.

The message is clear: in a world fractured by uncertainty, authoritarianism and centralized control are presented as seemingly effective solutions. However, this approach carries risks.

Coercion and imposition can generate resistance, further fuelling instability. The red swan is not only a metaphor for crisis, but also for transformation. It represents a world where old certainties have collapsed and the future is built on volatility and concentrated power.

The question is not whether new swans will emerge – black, green or red – but how we will navigate this new reality.

The answer will lie in the ability to adapt and in finding a balance between control and freedom, between order and chaos. The red swan is already here, and its impact will depend on how global actors face this unprecedented challenge.

Reflection: The red swan symbolizes the convergence of global crises—geopolitical, climate, economic, and security—that generate uncertainty and redefine power. It is not an isolated event, but a new normal where control and authoritarianism are presented as responses to chaos. Its impact will depend on how the world balances stability with freedom amid volatility.