Deaths that should not be forgotten; negligent homicides

In official statistics regarding violent mortality in Mexico, the main reference is the indicator related to intentional homicides, that is, those homicides in which the perpetrator's intention to take the life of another person or persons is proven.

The available evidence

According to data from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (Executive Secretariat), between 2015 and January 2025, 474,109 people have lost their lives violently. Of that number, 179,952 people died from negligent homicides, and 295,649 died in events classified as willful or intentional homicides. This means that 62.3% died from unintentional homicides, while 37.95% died from unintentional injuries. This in itself is already an important anomaly because in countries where there is no widespread violence, the data show more negligent homicides than intentional ones. It should not be forgotten, in addition, that these data present significant underreporting with respect to the Inegi mortality statistics.

Now, the second anomaly that is recorded, and this can only be the result of two possible options: either there has been a serious registration error, or there has been a deliberate intention to hide or falsify the information. This is the case of the state of Guanajuato. In this regard, the first thing that is important to highlight, in order to have an adequate dimension of the problem, is that, according to the 2020 Census, this entity was home to 4.9% of the total national population, with 6.16 million inhabitants.

An anomaly called Guanajuato

In relation to this indicator, the Executive Secretariat reports for Guanajuato, in the period indicated, 48,287 homicides, both intentional and negligent (10% of the national total); a figure disproportionate to its demographic weight in Mexico. Now, regarding intentional homicides, in Guanajuato, between 2015 and January 2025, 27,827 intentional homicides have been recorded: 9% of the national total.

The other major anomaly is the one related to negligent homicides, since, of the 179,952 cases reported by the Executive Secretariat, 20,589 were recorded in the state, that is, 11.4% of the national total, which has no logical explanation, since the Inegi data corroborate that in that state there are no such number of deaths due to traffic accidents. And in fact, the Executive Secretariat has recorded this data in the section of “deaths due to another element”.

It is important to highlight that the worst years are from 2017 to 2020, when the percentages of culpable homicides in Guanajuato, with respect to the national total, were: 14.9% in 2017; 11.1% in 2018; 14.6% in 2019 and 16.5% in 2020; in that period the average annual percentage was 14.2%; while between 2021 and January 2025 the indicator is 8.8%, a figure still anomalous with respect to the demographic weight of the entity in the country.

This is a relevant issue because, by definition, culpable homicides are random, so their territorial distribution should be approximately close to the demographic weight of each entity. Thus, if it were to be detected that culpable homicides in Guanajuato have a significant proportion that are actually intentional, this could alter the national records because it is the entity with the highest violent mortality rate in the country. The problem merits review at a national level.