The great battle of Buenos Aires: the keys to an unprecedented election in which the leadership of the PJ and support for Milei will be at stake.
On September 7, an unprecedented battle will take place in the province of Buenos Aires, which represents 38% of the country's total electoral roll. For the first time in the last twenty years, the Buenos Aires province elections will be separated from the national elections. This anomaly in the political system projects an uncertain outlook for the major parties, who will stake their claim and seek to strengthen their territorial position ahead of the October legislative elections.
When the people of Buenos Aires go to the polls in about three months, an atypical situation will arise in the 135 municipalities of Buenos Aires : that Sunday, only provincial legislators, municipal councilors, and school counselors will be elected . This will be a rarity for the inhabitants of the province, because this time the paper ballot they will find in the voting booth will not have a national category —either president or deputy—that would encourage a pull effect, nor a provincial-level category—for governor of Buenos Aires—that would act as a driver of the competition.
This unprecedented scheme shatters certainties and opens up all possibilities for the parties that will compete in the great Peronist bastion. For example, it could be a rare occurrence that Javier Milei, Cristina Kirchner, or Axel Kicillof will have cause to celebrate once the vote count is over . In other words, a scenario of multiple celebrations, with no major winners or losers.
The verdict of the polls will not only test Kicillof's leadership and determine his share of power in the legislature in the second half of his term, but could also reshape the political landscape in Buenos Aires and increase political fragmentation.
The election results will be decided in the first and third electoral districts, where nearly ten million Argentines vote . This is the home court of Peronism and where almost everything in a national contest is decided: the Buenos Aires metropolitan area . There, both Milei and the Partido Popular (PJ) will feature competitive or well-known figures on their ballots. The maneuver follows a logical logic: it's likely that the candidate's brand and level of awareness will have a greater impact in these electoral districts. Or that these regions are more susceptible to the nationalization of a campaign.
Therefore, it is no coincidence that Cristina Kirchner , whose leadership is fading, as is the case with Mauricio Macri, is considering running for provincial deputy in the territorial division that includes La Matanza, Lomas de Zamora, Quilmes, Avellaneda, Florencio Varela, and Almirante Brown . The social base of Peronism is located in this geographic area, home to nearly five million voters. Therefore, the former president, whose crown is being threatened by Kicillof, could emerge revitalized if she achieves a strong showing—more than 40 points—in this battleground, where 18 provincial deputies will be elected . To put this into perspective: neither presidents Martín Llaryora (Córdoba), Maximiliano Pullaro (Santa Fe), nor Jorge Macri (CABA) are testing their legitimacy in their districts before the five million people eligible to vote.
In the power play taking place in the suburbs, the libertarians find a more profitable horizon in the first electoral section . There they concentrate their efforts to offer a victory to Milei.
This section of Buenos Aires often acts as a kind of thermometer to measure the degree of real support for a party or national figure in the country's most populous district. Unlike the third section, a geography dominated by Peronism, the first has a hybrid demographic composition. While the municipalities located in the northern zone—Vicente López, San Isidro, Tigre, and San Fernando—tend to support center-right or right-wing proposals, the districts in the western corridor are controlled by Justicialist parties—Merlo, Moreno, and Ituzaingó. In the center are the "swing states" of the metropolitan area, such as San Martín, Tres de Febrero, San Miguel, and Malvinas Argentinas, whose voters tend to fluctuate between supporting Peronist or anti-Peronist proposals.
In the first section, eight provincial senators will be up for grabs. There, Milei will count on the support of Diego Valenzuela (Tres de Febrero), who dared to take the Pro plates and join LLA. Valenzuela is a political partner of Patricia Bullrich, another convert to Mileiism, in the libertarian galaxy.
Likewise, the role played by Soledad Martínez (Vicente López), Jorge Macri 's alter ego, on whom Milei declared war after the Buenos Aires elections, will be decisive. Will there be a clean slate for Martínez, or will the libertarians seek to erode her power at the expense of their electoral needs? For his part, Ramón Lanús (San Isidro) is already offering his services to LLA. He hasn't left the Pro camp, but he is willing to embrace the ideas of liberty, as Milei often says, and doesn't rule out joining "the forces of heaven" should negotiations between Sebastián Pareja and Cristian Ritondo become complicated. Like Valenzuela, Lanús has a close relationship with Bullrich, although he didn't break with Macri.
The electoral system, which will be launched in September , strengthens the decision-making power of mayors when it comes to negotiating the composition of the lists . Municipal leaders, especially those in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area, are the ones who control the territory, control the administrative buttons, and pull the strings of the apparatus or patronage networks in their respective areas. Without a national figure pulling the strings, their role will be decisive. "This time, the ballot will be pulled from the bottom up. It's something new for politics," analyzes one of the Pro party's organizers.
In this context, mayors will base their expectations on the results of their municipal council elections. This is the foundation of their governability.
A demonstration of the confidence that the mayors have in the run-up to the September 7 election is the move carried out by Santiago Passaglia in San Nicolás, the capital of the second section. Originally a Peronist, Passaglia distanced himself from the negotiations between LLA and PRO to merge and launched his own platform to compete in the Buenos Aires province race. He is hoping to see if he can extend his influence to other towns in the second section, where more than 400,000 people vote.
The effect of the split also explains the rebellion of the 45 municipal leaders who support Kicillof in his increasingly aggressive duel with Cristina Kirchner . They are convinced that separating the elections strengthens their power structure and strengthens their position in view of the discussion over the preparation of the electoral lists. For this reason, they encourage a break with La Cámpora and the former president that would allow Kicillof to conquer the leadership of Peronism. In the long term, their goal is to build an alternative to Milei in 2027.
While the Buenos Aires election boosted the ambitions of the LLA team, given that the Violets defeated the Macris at their headquarters, the President will face a tougher game in Buenos Aires . The Mileis entrusted Pareja with building their empire in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area, where the Casa Rosada (Presidential Palace) will seek to expand their project's voting base with an eye toward October.
Although the head of state will try to nationalize the debate during the Buenos Aires campaign, it will not be easy for him to effectively penetrate the Peronist structure or win over supporters of his pro-market reform program in the areas of the metropolitan area controlled by PJ leaders.
For example, in the recent victories of anti-Peronist representatives in Buenos Aires—the 2017 and 2021 legislative elections—a paradox emerged. While Esteban Bullrich and Diego Santilli won at the provincial level with the Cambiemos or Juntos por el Cambio coalitions, Kirchnerism triumphed in the third electoral district. The same thing happened in 2013, when Sergio Massa claimed victory after splitting from the Frente para la Victoria (Front for Victory), but Martín Insaurralde overtook him in the most populous district.
Given that the traditional paper ballot will be used—the single ballot will debut in October—parties will require muscle and resources for oversight. For example, in La Matanza alone, an army of around 3,500 poll watchers is needed to cover all the polling stations.
Leaders with extensive experience in politics and who know Buenos Aires politics inside and out predict an unusual competition on September 7. Not only because the mayors of the province's 135 districts will be putting all their effort into strengthening their governability, but also because there will be eight different elections for representatives and senators from the Buenos Aires province.
The province is made up of eight electoral sections . The most important, due to their impact on the provincial results, are the third, first, fifth, and eighth (La Plata). Representatives for both chambers of the Buenos Aires Legislature are elected through this territorial division.
In the September 7 elections, half of the provincial legislature will be renewed: 46 seats for deputies and 23 for senators . In this round of voting, the residents of the first, fourth, fifth, and seventh districts will elect senators, as well as municipal councilors and school counselors. Meanwhile, the residents of the second, third, sixth, and eighth districts must select their representatives for the seats of deputies.
In this context, the main candidates for Kicillof, Cristina Kirchner, and Milei will be competing for the Buenos Aires province legislators who will emerge from the electoral districts with the largest number of voters. The central unknowns surrounding how the electoral competition will be structured will begin to dissipate on July 9, when the deadline for registering alliances closes. That day, it will be known whether Peronism will remain united or whether the offer will be divided between the two most representative factions in Buenos Aires: Kicillof's camp and Cristina Kirchner's camp.
It will also be decided whether LLA, Milei's party, and PRO, the party led by Macri, will coexist on the same electoral front. Negotiations led by Ritondo, Macri's executive branch in the province, to merge with the Libertarians are advanced, but it remains to be seen whether they will coexist in a coalition or whether Karina Milei will impose the formula of membership to preserve LLA's brand and identity.
At the same time, doubts arise about how the offshoots of the defunct Juntos por el Cambio (Together for Change) will regroup or what impact LLA exiles, like Carlos Kikuchi, will have.
For example, there are questions surrounding the possibility that the Violets will be able to incorporate the group of radicals led by Maximiliano Abad , one of the UCR leaders who cooperates with the Casa Rosada and does not rule out an electoral agreement with Milei.
The mysteries surrounding the concrete chances of Cristina Kirchner running for Buenos Aires deputy in the third section, or other prominent figures at the national or provincial level—such as Sergio Massa, Santilli, Guillermo Montenegro, or Pablo Petrecca —will be resolved on July 19, when the parties must register their candidate lists.
Milei's campaign force is hopeful of making a breakthrough on Kicillof and the municipalities dominated by Cristina Kirchner after Manuel Adorni's victory in the capital. As he hopes his libertarian model will resonate with the great strength of Peronism, the President has fostered an alliance with Macri in Buenos Aires, despite the comedy of entanglements between Pro and LLA in the city. Convergence with Milei opens a path to survival for Macri. "We must get through 2025," acknowledges one of Pro's allies.
Ritondo, who appears to be a tightrope walker, is trying to overcome the final hurdles before sealing an agreement with the Libertarians. His priority is to preserve the territories of the thirteen yellow mayors, ensure that the LLA will allow the Pro Party to be included in an electoral campaign, and secure suitable seats on the provincial legislative lists for representatives of the different tribes of Macri's party.
Between them, Pro and LLA control 17 municipalities. Among the most significant is General Pueyrredón, the seat of the fifth section, where five Senate seats are up for election. The municipality, managed by Montenegro, is one of the most populated districts in the interior of Buenos Aires. This area tends to be more permeated by right-wing or anti-Peronist messages than in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area.
The UCR is divided between those willing to explore rapprochement with the LLA and those who threaten to build a third way. While the election is likely to be polarized between Kirchnerism and Milei, they pin their hopes on the firepower of Radical mayors or neighborhood parties, especially those from the interior of Buenos Aires. There are UCR municipal leaders who wield influence in large electoral districts, such as Miguel Lunghi (Tandil) in the fifth.
Against this backdrop, Facundo Manes launched the "Para Adelante" program, which aims to bring together leaders from the Radical Party, Peronism, and progressive movements, as well as representatives of civil society who disagree with either Milei's model or Kirchnerism. Will he join forces with Florencio Randazzo, Emilio Monzó, or Margarita Stolbizer?
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