Up to 37 named cyclones are expected in Mexico this season.

The National Meteorological Service of the National Water Commission forecasts the development of between 16 and 20 named tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean and another 13 to 17 in the Atlantic, following the release of its analysis for this year's rainy season and tropical cyclone events.

Conagua reported that these forecasts represent a scenario close to or slightly above average in both basins.

In the Pacific, four to six of these storms could reach Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale; another four or five could reach Category 1 or 2, and eight or nine could be tropical storms.

In the Atlantic, there could be three or four major storms; an equal number could be Category 1 or 2, and seven to nine could reach tropical storm status.

The development of these systems is expected during the season, which officially begins on May 15 in the Pacific Ocean and June 1 in the Atlantic, and ends on November 30 in both basins.

It should be noted that the number of tropical cyclones forecast does not determine the number of systems that could have effects on or impact the national territory.

Furthermore, each system develops according to the atmospheric and oceanic conditions occurring at the time, so it is essential to stay informed of the course and status of each system in a timely manner and through official sources.

One of the main climatic phenomena that modulate cyclonic activity is known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). , which in 2025 transitioned from cold conditions (La Niña) to a neutral phase, known as ENSO neutral. This transition can alter the magnitude, intensity, and behavior of these phenomena.

Conagua reiterates its commitment to providing timely, accurate, and reliable meteorological information for decision-making, as well as to strengthening the culture of prevention in the face of the effects of meteorological phenomena. This is closely related to point 8 of the National Agreement for the Human Right to Water and Sustainability, which includes implementing adaptation and mitigation measures to address the effects of climate change.