Aragon will create more than 17,000 jobs in two years

The Aragonese economy will continue to grow within a context of a certain slowdown due to the weak recovery in Europe, in which Aragon will maintain a positive evolution, especially with the eurozone and maintaining a very short distance, of only one tenth, compared to Spain, in the years 2025 and 2026.

After a 2024 closing in which Aragon is estimated to record a GDP growth of 3% due to internal demand, private consumption and tourism and a Eurozone of 0.8%, the forecast is that the Aragonese economy will advance 2.2% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 . An evolution that, if fulfilled, would mean that the Aragonese GDP would be 9% higher than in 2019 . The estimates for Spain are 3.2% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026.

This growth in Aragon would be reflected in GDP per capita, which would be five percentage points, improving the relative position from 107.07% to 108.5% of the Spanish average.

This economic growth in Aragon would also have a positive impact on employment. The forecast is that 17,500 jobs will be created in the community between 2025 and 2026. "If the economic forecast is confirmed, between 8,000 and 9,000 jobs will be created on average between 2025 and 2026 and the unemployment rate would be 8%" in 2026, according to Miguel Cardoso, chief economist for Spain at BBVA Research and Markets, during the press conference in Zaragoza to present the 'Situation in Aragon 2025' Report.

This job creation would also be supported by improved productivity due to lower oil prices and downward pressure on energy costs from renewable energy production, as well as lower interest rates and easier financing by the private sector.

This is a positive development that could also be greater in terms of growth and employment as the investments of 40 billion euros by companies in the Aragonese community materialise.

However, the Aragonese economy also has some risks , since it is within a context of slowdown and falling exports , which are weighed down above all by the automotive industry, and the lack of sales, especially of electric cars produced in Europe, as well as by the economic situation of countries such as Germany and over which there is doubt about its possible evolution and whether it is a situation that responds to the situation due to the automobile sector or is structural.

Added to these factors are the economic uncertainties arising from the announcement of tariffs by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, because, although Aragon records a low percentage of sales to the country (between 1% and 2%), there may be effects due to the consequences on other countries that are main commercial partners of the Aragonese community.

In addition, there are other elements at a local level, such as the fiscal consolidation process due to the contribution that Aragon has to make, although no additional measures are planned, and labour costs due to the reduction of the working day, the increase in the Interprofessional Minimum Wage (SMI) and the increase in Social Security contributions. These measures in employment could slow down the creation of jobs.

Specifically, in terms of employment, the report indicates that 54% of employees in the Aragonese community work more than 37.5 hours a week and would be affected by this measure, which will have a special impact on small businesses with one or two employees, where there could be a drop in turnover and a decrease in productivity "without mechanisms to alleviate the increase in labour costs".

Policies that encourage investment would also be necessary, especially in sectors such as industry due to the uncertainty it is experiencing, as well as in the housing market, which represents a "bottleneck" for growth in urban areas.

The services sector is the main driver of job creation in Aragon. The data from the BBVA Research report indicate that it accounts for around 50%, taking into account data on Social Security affiliation. These are jobs that are related, above all, to the restaurant and hotel industry, but also to high added value professional services in response to the demand from companies for consulting, technology and banking services, among others. "These are professions that require human capital and education," says Cardoso.

It is a service provision that also occurs both nationally and internationally through the incorporation of professionals from other countries, which facilitates this relationship, as well as through language, as is the case in Latin America and the United States.

This trend, which appears to be sustainable over time, means that job creation is taking place mainly in the urban areas of Zaragoza, Huesca and Teruel , accounting for between 60% and 70% of employment growth. In fact, Social Security affiliation in three Aragonese capitals "is above the average for the whole of Aragon", although growth is also observed outside the urban area, although to a lesser extent.

The increase in employment in the public sector is also significant, as well as in the agri-food sector which, "unlike what happens in Spain, has performed positively in Aragon," adds Cardoso. There is also growth in jobs in the manufacturing sector.

Immigration plays a significant role in the number of jobs created. In fact, in Aragon, 22% of the 31,500 jobs created in the community are filled by immigrants (45% in Spain). In addition, 80% is explained by the increase in employment among people with Spanish nationality.

In the construction sector, positive development is also expected due to the construction of housing, a segment in which there will continue to be a deficit in the market, since for the years 2025 and 2026 it is expected that flats will be built that would cover 40% of the new homes that are created. Employment will also boost this activity due to the demand for infrastructure, especially of a commercial nature.

In the case of industry , job creation will depend on the evolution of activity, especially in the automotive sector and depending on the recovery of sales and the launch of projects such as the Stellantis battery gigafactory in Zaragoza. The activity of new industries will also have an influence.

"First of all, services will generate jobs, followed by construction, and to a lesser extent by the public sector. The industrial sector will depend on the intensity of job creation in the automotive sector and new industries," adds Cardoso. Only the hospitality industry and agriculture are showing a slowdown .

In 2025, economic growth will continue and Aragon, with 2.2%, will grow more than its surroundings. In fact, GDP growth is expected to be 1% for the Eurozone and 2% for the United States, while China will remain at the same levels as previous years with a rate of 4.1% in 2025 and 4% in 2026 compared to 4.8% recorded in 2024.

This is a framework in which an increase in competitiveness is expected due to the price of oil, with a barrel cost of 75 dollars compared to the previous 80 or 90 dollars. The decrease in energy prices is especially important in Aragon because it is the autonomous region that uses the most energy to produce a unit of added value. In this area, the community benefits from the generation of renewables and its greater weight in the energy mix, given that going from 45% of alternative energies to 60% means a downward pressure on electricity of 10%.

"Aragon is a region with intensive companies and its prospects will improve," as well as the price of oil and the impact of renewables on inflation, as well as the drop in interest rates, which will lead to lower financing costs due to the fall of some 200 basis points due to the drop in Euribor.

This rate cut will also benefit families, for example with regard to their mortgages, which may facilitate greater demand for products and services in the domestic sphere.