Mexico doubles trade deficit with China in 10 years

Mexico doubled its trade deficit with China over the past decade, reaching a record $119.858 billion in 2024, according to data from INEGI.

In that last year, Mexico's exports totaled $9.937 billion, marking a second consecutive year-on-year decline, while imports rose to a record high of $129.795 billion.

Mexico's trade deficit with China is gaining importance as President Donald Trump has insisted on adjusting Mexico's trade balance with the United States as a condition for improving tariff treatment for Mexican imports.

A large portion of Mexican imports of Chinese products corresponds to intermediate goods used to produce final export goods. This is related, in turn, to the low national integration of production chains in certain industries in Mexico, such as the television industry, and to the high global competitiveness of Chinese inputs, parts, and components.

In the first five months of 2024, Mexico's trade deficit with China increased 1.2% to $47.554 billion. In bilateral trade during this period, Mexican exports fell 1.5% to $3.827 billion, and Chinese exports grew 1% to $51.382 billion.

Data from the World Trade Organization (WTO) show that five metallurgy products account for 56% of total Mexican exports to China in 2024, which the organization estimates at $9.076 billion.

The sum is made up as follows: copper minerals and their concentrates (3,719 million dollars), lead minerals and their concentrates (687 million), copper waste and scrap (394 million), zinc concentrates (176 million) and precious metal minerals and concentrates (110 million).

In mid-June, Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard explained that Mexico exports copper ore but imports refined copper from China, without which the country's automotive industry would grind to a halt in a day. "It's clear that we have to scale up, as we say, upgrade our capabilities," he said.

In recent decades, China has established itself as one of the world's major manufacturing centers. According to the WTO, this progress is due to its growing integration into global value chains.

In addition, factors such as trade liberalization, investment flows, and labor productivity play a role. Also notable are its domestic market, the quality of its infrastructure, and the drive for innovation.

Today, manufactured goods account for more than 95% of China's total exports. This figure reflects the weight of its industry in global trade.

A recent WTO report highlighted that the disruption to trade between the United States and China is likely to lead to significant trade diversions, raising concerns in third markets about increased competition from China.