The IMF maintains its support for Argentina, but the market warns of risks to growth.

The national government and the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) maintain their economic growth projections for Argentina this year, estimated at 5.5%. However, private analysts have begun to warn about the potential contractionary effects of the new phase of the economic plan, which could interrupt the sustained recovery trend.

The economic team is confident that the Large Investment Incentive Scheme (RIGI) will boost large-scale investments. On the other hand, various private consultants anticipate an initial negative impact on the level of activity, although they project a possible recovery by the third quarter.

February had shown monthly growth of 0.8% according to the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE), but March could reflect a slowdown, affected by accelerating inflation, fewer working days, and exchange rate volatility. "Accelerated inflation and exchange rate uncertainty had an impact," said Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina of Equilibra.

According to the consulting firm, real wages will decline in the coming months, and high interest rates will restrict consumption. "With lower real wages and higher interest rates, a stagflationary impact seems inevitable in the coming months," warned Equilibra.

The SBS Group also observed a "bearish bias" in March's leading indicators, attributed to financial volatility. Despite this, they identified positive factors such as credit expansion, exchange rate flexibility, and the energy boom.

LCG, for its part, projected weak and more erratic growth for 2025, subject to relative price adjustments and concentrated in a few strategic sectors. They estimate a 5% annual increase, with a more moderate year-over-year improvement.

The government celebrated February's performance and highlighted that the economy is approaching its all-time high of 2017. "The economy is at its highest level since June 2022, 4.6% above November 2023," said Martín Vauthier , advisor to Minister Luis Caputo .

In its latest report, the IMF maintained its growth forecast for Argentina at 5.5% in 2025, second only to India globally. The restoration of confidence and the implementation of structural reforms are key factors for the multilateral organization.

The Fund also warned of a potential risk of "Dutch disease" if revenues from natural resource exports cause excessive appreciation of the local currency. To mitigate this risk, it considers it essential to attract foreign direct investment through the RIGI, which has already accumulated investment pledges totaling more than USD 12 billion.

President Javier Milei dismissed this concern: "It's stupid. All that wealth is going to generate a monstrous, labor-intensive service economy," he stated in a recent interview, ruling out a negative effect from the appreciation of the peso.