The Trump administration's quiet shift in stance on Ukraine

When U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance was asked about the war in Ukraine at a foreign policy forum in Washington last week, diplomats expected Maga-style criticism of Kiev and a tone of sympathy toward Russia.

Instead, they heard something very different. Regarding a set of Russian proposals to end the conflict, Vance stated, "We think they're asking for too much."

The response surprised those present . Vance was one of the main protagonists of the infamous Oval Office confrontation in February, when he lashed out at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and accused him of not showing enough gratitude to the United States for its support. Indeed, he gave the impression that there would be a complete breakdown in relations between Kyiv and Washington from then on.

Vance's comments were part of a notable shift in tone by the Trump administration. It appears that US officials are growing impatient with Vladimir Putin, as suspicions grow that the Russian leader, not Zelensky, could be the biggest obstacle to peace.

"The Americans had this simplistic idea: let's win over Russia, pressure Zelensky, and we'll reach an agreement. But it seems that trying to win over Russia isn't enough," explains Wolfgang Ischinger, a former German ambassador to the United States, to whom Vance responded at last week's forum.

International efforts to end the war have intensified in recent days. At Putin's request, Russia and Ukraine are scheduled to hold direct talks in Turkey on Thursday, although it is unclear whether the Russian leader will attend in person.

On Tuesday, a White House official confirmed that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump's special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg, will participate .

But the goal that most interests Trump—a ceasefire that could lead to peace negotiations and an end to the war—has so far eluded him. Putin has rejected international calls to end the fighting, despite threats from Western powers, including the United States, to impose harsh new sanctions.

Russia's apparent intransigence is proving irritating to Trump, analysts say . "You can sense frustration in his communication. Perhaps he feels he's given away too much and gotten nothing in return," said Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia.

Trump's social media posts reflect his impatience. In late April, after Russia launched missiles at civilian areas in Ukraine, he threatened to impose further sanctions on Moscow.

"Trump is coming to the conclusion that Putin is not a friend of the United States. There's a recognition that he can't be trusted... that he's not negotiating seriously," said Bill Taylor, who served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to 2009. It's becoming increasingly difficult to blame the Ukrainians for the continued fighting. In recent weeks, Zelensky has gone out of his way to present himself as a cooperative partner, supporting U.S. demands for a ceasefire. On Sunday, he agreed to Putin's proposal for direct talks in Turkey after Trump urged him to do so.

Relations between Kiev and Washington have recovered since the February Oval Office clash, thanks in part to the minerals agreement that opens the door to joint investments in Ukraine's resources by both countries.

Ukrainian officials say the agreement increases the likelihood that the United States will continue to support Ukraine's defense. But it remains unclear whether Trump has transferred his support to Ukraine or is willing to penalize Russia for its recalcitrant stance.

While most Western leaders , including Kellogg, the U.S. special envoy to Ukraine, criticized Putin's offer of direct negotiations, saying there should first be a ceasefire, Trump praised the Russian leader's initiative, saying it would be a "potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine."

"Trump believes Putin isn't interested in participating, but I'm not convinced this will put significant pressure on the Russian leader," said Eric Green, a former advisor to President Joe Biden on the National Security Council and current senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank.

Ischinger expressed his "delight" that Vance had changed his stance on Russia and that the US and European positions on the war in Ukraine were becoming closer . However, the former German ambassador to the United States added that the vice president didn't take the next logical step, which would have been to say we now need to put the screws on Russia.

However, other US politicians are willing to take a tough stance with Moscow. Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally, has declared bipartisan support for a bill that would impose drastic sanctions on Russia, including a 500% tariff on imports from countries that buy its oil and gas, if Putin does not begin serious negotiations to end the war.

The bill has been backed by 72 senators, a sign that support for Ukraine remains strong on Capitol Hill.

"These sanctions represent the Senate's view that we believe the number one enemy is Russia," Graham told reporters late last month. He believed Putin "would be making a grave mistake if he tried to manipulate Trump."

Experts say Russia, meanwhile, is banking on the US president losing patience with its attempt to end the war. "Putin is playing the long game and believes time is on his side," McFaul said. "He's calculating that Trump will lose interest and that the Americans will cut off military aid, which will weaken the Ukrainian military," the former US ambassador to Russia said.

Others believe the danger of the US president abandoning Ukraine to its fate has diminished in recent weeks. Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former senior director for Russia at the National Security Council, said Trump would have difficulty achieving one of his main goals—resetting relations with Russia—without first resolving the Ukraine issue.

"The stakes are too high. It's true that he could withdraw from Ukraine, but if he does, it would be considered a failure," he declared.

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