AI experts warn: Nuclear war could break out sooner than we imagine

Artificial intelligence (AI) is constantly advancing, and the effects of its developments have yet to materialize in the weapons field. It is clear that as AI systems become more capable , the risk of these advances accelerating military decision-making times, increasing the risk of strategic instability, and forcing countries into a race for AI supremacy increases; therefore, the tools developed must adapt to the AI ​​era.

This technology risks increasing uncertainty, as its malicious use leads to the development of munitions, the spread of disinformation, and even the manufacture of nuclear weapons . Furthermore, some AI experts argue that the capabilities of such technology could disrupt global security and cause massive nuclear devastation. However, to mitigate all these potentially catastrophic effects, experts demand that countries seek an agreement to reduce the risk of nuclear war caused by artificial intelligence.

According to the South China Morning Post , AI experts have warned that China, the United States, and other key players must reach a consensus to regulate the use of the technology and minimize the risk of nuclear escalation.

John Tasioulas, director of the Oxford University Institute for AI Ethics and a member of a committee advising the Greek prime minister on AI, said in an interview at Oxford that "there needs to be significant cooperation" because "one of the big challenges is ensuring that the use of AI in the military is under human control , especially with regard to nuclear weapons." He added that "the annihilation of the human race in nuclear war is much more likely than its annihilation by robots."

What should countries do to mitigate this risk?

Authors Jacob Stokes, Colin H. Kahl, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, and Nicholas Lokker of the report, "Avoiding AI Armageddon: US-China-Russia Rivalry at the Nexus of Nuclear Weapons and Artificial Intelligence," argue that "effectively managing issues related to AI and nuclear power, in order to enhance both deterrence and stability, will require a proactive approach that considers diplomatic, military, and technological factors."

They therefore recommend that countries develop knowledge and expertise around AI-related issues, promote standards for the safe use of AI , integrate AI into diplomatic initiatives related to nuclear and strategic risks, implement a comprehensive risk reduction package , and include policies to assess all nuclear-related processes.

Despite the warning, there are two countries that continue to rely on AI in war conflicts.

The aforementioned report notes that China is building its nuclear arsenal to make it "numerically larger and technologically more sophisticated," while the United States is advancing the development of autonomous drones and other weapons capable of intervening without human assistance. Furthermore, in the 2024 report on Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain, China refused to sign the Blueprint for Action agreement , a document that reflects that "it is essential to maintain human control and involvement in actions related to the use of nuclear weapons."

This country's refusal raised alarm bells, as it opposes "ethical and human-centered applications of AI in the military domain." Therefore, if an agreement is not reached as soon as possible, there is a possibility that AI-powered weapons could trigger an international war .

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