What are the chances of a permanent, catastrophic blackout, according to artificial intelligence?

April 28, 2025, will go down in history after millions of people in Spain, Portugal, and parts of southern France experienced an unprecedented scenario: a massive power outage left entire cities without power for hours.

According to initial reports from Red Eléctrica Española , the cause was an abrupt loss of power that disconnected the entire Iberian grid from the European system. Although the situation has stabilized, the inevitable question is: Could a permanent or very long-lasting blackout occur?

We consulted artificial intelligence to analyze all possible causes. These are the options, from most to least likely.

The European electricity grid is a gigantic, interconnected network. A major imbalance, like the one we experienced yesterday, can trigger automatic protection cuts. If the fault were even more severe and couldn't be quickly reconnected, it could lead to a blackout lasting several days or weeks.

That's true: Europe has invested in redundant protections. The probability is low , but it's the most technically realistic scenario.

Power plant and substation control systems are increasingly protected, but no system is 100% secure. A coordinated cyberattack could sabotage grid operations from within.

Cases like the one in Ukraine in 2015 demonstrate that it's possible to shut down entire regions using specialized malware. Although the probability remains medium-low in Spain, the risk is growing.

It's not science fiction: In 1859, the Carrington Event caused the northern lights in the Caribbean and burned dozens of telegraph poles . Today, a coronal mass ejection would affect satellites, GPS, and, of course, power grids.

Although the risk is low on a human scale (once every few centuries), its impact would be devastating. And according to some studies, we're not as prepared as we should be.

Physical attacks on critical infrastructure, such as substations or power plants, could affect specific areas. However, the network's redundancy would ensure that a single attack would not cause a national collapse .

It would have to be a large-scale coordinated action, which makes it very unlikely.

The Earth's magnetic field is constantly shifting. Although studies show its weakening, catastrophic changes occur on scales of thousands of years.

In the short and medium term, this risk is purely theoretical.

A war targeting energy infrastructure could cause major blackouts. However, in Western Europe this risk is very low.

Political work, international alliances, and military deterrence make this scenario unlikely.

In failed states or regions experiencing prolonged war, neglect of infrastructure maintenance leads to structural blackouts .

In Spain or Europe, where there are strong regulations and controls, this risk is practically nonexistent today.

An EMP attack would involve detonating a nuclear bomb at high altitude to corrupt a country's electronic systems. Although it appears in novels and movies, in real life it would be an act of nuclear war with global consequences.

Highly unlikely risk, according to AI

A string of poor decisions, programming errors, or miscommunication could escalate an initial incident and lead to a prolonged network outage.

Although automatic correction protocols exist, the human factor can never be completely ruled out.

A collapse in the production of key energy sources (gas, oil, renewables) could force planned power outages or severe restrictions. But it would be a gradual process, not an abrupt blackout.

This scenario is more closely linked to energy crises than to a sudden technical failure.

Yesterday's blackout reminds us that, although the modern electrical grid is one of the marvels of contemporary engineering, it is not invulnerable. A single failure can be controlled. But it also reveals that certain risks—however unlikely they may seem—deserve attention.