Marek Kozubal: Will there be a war in 2027? Really?

General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, believes the United States and the European Union have a year and a half to prepare for a coordinated attack by Russia and China. The general met with government representatives but did not repeat his words in the presence of Polish journalists, for example at a press conference.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk, however, was eager to comment on the meeting with the general. "According to the analyses and opinions of American NATO commanders—it's significant that the Americans believe so—a direct military threat from Russia could occur as early as 2027. That's why it's so important to me that we focus all our energy on eliminating threats of all kinds, and I'm counting on synergy between ministries here," the Prime Minister said.

He recalled that on Friday the Council of Ministers adopted the National Security Strategy, and that he himself had the opportunity to talk that day not only with the general, but also with the outgoing head of MI6, the British intelligence service, and the new head of that service.

"All these meetings, conversations, and decisions are focused on one thing: Poland must be ready, Poland must be well prepared, the Polish army must be well equipped, and the situation in Poland must be stable so that we are ready for any scenario," he declared. He added that "there is no reason for us to scare each other, but we must be truly vigilant and focused."

– That is why I will make decisions that will take into account, above all, security, including internal security and political stability within our country, because there is nothing more valuable than the security of the Polish family, the Polish state – said Donald Tusk.

Earlier, Deputy Minister of Defense Cezary Tomczyk (PO) commented on the American general's words in an interview with Radio Zet, stating that "our intelligence reports speak of exactly the same possible scenario." Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz (PSL) also commented on them, writing on the X platform: "This is another signal and confirmation that security issues must be removed from political disputes. We are living in the most dangerous times since the end of World War II, and basing our security on three pillars: a strong society, a strong army, and strong alliances is our common task."

Let's break down the sequence of statements to better understand what politicians are talking about and what elements they are keeping silent about.

The identification of 2027 as a potential time of crisis, or even global war, is not accidental. Several years ago, Chinese communist leader Xi Jinping ordered the Chinese People's Army to be ready to conquer Taiwan by 2027. Experts have long suggested that the Pacific could become a theater of war, pitting China against Taiwan and the United States, and perhaps even Japan and South Korea.

However, this is the lower limit of the timeframe for a potential invasion of Taiwan. Other experts point to 2029 or even 2049 – both dates being associated with the 80th and 100th anniversaries of the founding of the People's Republic of China, respectively. Therefore, we are dealing with a certain uncertainty today, which some may associate with numerology.

The second important aspect of the American commander's statement must be interpreted based on an analysis of the US military's war-fighting capabilities. Back during John F. Kennedy's presidency, America adopted a "two-war doctrine" for which it should be prepared. Analysts at the time had in mind clashes with the USSR, China, and Cuba. This doctrine has evolved. Currently, the United States can only fight one war. Seeing as they are strengthening their air and naval forces, one can assume that the Pacific is more important to them than Europe.

Therefore, at this point it is worth listening to General Jarosław Gromadziński, former commander of Eurocorps, who pointed out that Grynkewich actually represents the current position of the administration in Washington, not NATO.

"In my opinion, General Grynkewich's statement indicates that the US is considering the possibility of a confrontation with China in the Pacific region in 2027 at the earliest in its strategic plans. (...) This requires the regrouping of all US strategic forces in this region to meet the possibility of conducting operations on such a large scale. Currently, many experts, including Americans, believe that the United States has the capabilities to conduct, and here the key word is – simultaneously – one full-scale military operation. In the scenario of a potential confrontation in the Pacific, American analysts have identified a threat arising from a possible close alliance between China and Russia," he noted on the X platform.

In his opinion, the US is openly influencing its allies in Europe to prepare for such an eventuality, "at the same time giving Russia a signal that a possible conflict with NATO will have dire consequences for Russia."

Therefore, by presenting a vision of the crisis in 2027, the American general is signaling what US President Donald Trump has been repeating for many months – that Europe must take responsibility for its defense and spend more on arms.

General Gromadziński adds that he disagrees with the Prime Minister's thesis that Russia will be ready to confront NATO in 2027. Moreover, Grynkewich presented no evidence to that effect.

It's worth recalling an interview for "Rzeczpospolita" with General Dariusz Łukowski, head of the National Security Bureau. Asked about Russian troops, among other things, he recalled that they are "stretched out on the front line, have profound operational effectiveness issues, and lack the reserves to afford parallel concentration." "Everything depends on how the situation in Ukraine develops," the general told us. Asked about a potential attack on NATO countries, he noted that "in this case, Russia must reckon with the Alliance's reaction under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty."

"NATO's precise response is described in secret defense plans. Many elements have already been preauthorized by the Alliance's political authorities and are therefore automatically activated at the military level. We cannot discuss details, but I assure you that Russia is aware that the consequences of an attack on Allied territory would be unacceptable. Currently, Russia is focused on Ukraine. Therefore, it is important to remember that Poland's security is guaranteed by Ukraine, which is within the Western sphere of influence. It then provides us with a natural security buffer. The worst-case scenario is Russia taking over all of Ukraine, along with its massive military potential," the head of the National Security Bureau (BBN) noted.

So, why did the ruling coalition politicians focus on the American military's statement? Will the war narrative about a potential conflict in 2027 fuel their drive to win the next elections and impact the domestic situation?

The American general's statement coincided with the adoption by the Council of Ministers of an amendment to the National Security Strategy, one of the key strategic documents, and the Sejm's vote on a special defense law that simplifies, among other things, investments in the defense industry, military purchases, and the construction of fortifications under the "East Shield."

Both acts were presented as a government success and marketed in the media as an almost visible acceleration effect, almost in response to warnings from the American general. But that's not true.

Work on the new strategy took many months. I'd wager dollars to peanuts that the acceleration in this regard stemmed from the calculation to adopt it with the current BBN leadership and have it signed by President Andrzej Duda, thus avoiding and avoiding entanglement in negotiations with the bureau's new leadership, headed by Sławomir Cenckiewicz and President Karol Nawrocki.

Meanwhile, work on the special act has been dragging on for over a year and a half. But Deputy Minister Cezary Tomczyk, presenting the results, offered no shortage of fireworks. In his opinion, we're witnessing a "revolution in defense investments," "Poland is launching a 'turbo mode' for national security," "zero resistance, full mobilization," and "in the shadow of rising geopolitical tensions, Poland is turning the corner on its defense history."

I'll draw your attention to another story, which Jacek Dobrzyński, spokesman for the Ministry of Interior and Administration, constructed simultaneously. On Platform X, quoting General Alexus Grynkewich, he criticized former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki for posting a video on July 16th showing a vehicle from NATO's Multinational Corps Northeast crossing our border.

"Although this car has been transporting mail and supplies four times a day for many years, the former prime minister, pouring hate on our NATO ally, asks "when will the government end this?" Does the former prime minister dislike the presence of NATO troops in Poland? (...) mindless attacks on our NATO allies are indisputably in line with Putin's plans to attack Europe," wrote Jacek Dobrzyński.

At this point, did he step out of his role as an official of the Ministry of Interior and Administration and step into the shoes of a politician?

If we take the risk of war seriously in 2027, we should essentially know the government's timetable – how the country intends to prepare for war in the next eighteen months, how supplies, for example, of medicines, will be replenished, when mass exercises for the civilian population will be organized, including real "war" scenarios? I would expect information from the Ministry of Interior and Administration – every week – on how many old shelters have been renovated, how many new ones are being built, when the new government communications system, warning and alerting system for threats to the civilian population, will be ready, and when the Civil Defense Corps will be formed. Let's not mention the mass military training for volunteers announced by Prime Minister Donald Tusk in March.