Witold M. Orłowski: The news about the death of the West is somewhat exaggerated

The economies of Western countries are facing death, Putin explained to the participants of the Eurasian Economic Forum in Minsk. They keep burying us, and they themselves will soon die, he added. The Russian dictator did not mince his words, supporting his thesis with specific figures. Last year, Russia's GDP grew by 4.3 percent, while the eurozone's only by 0.9 percent. Do we need any more evidence of Russia's approaching triumph, which is rapidly heading towards the role of an economic superpower?

The situation is a bit more complicated. First, it is a well-known fact in economics that wealthier countries develop at a slower pace than poorer countries – provided, of course, that these poorer countries are well-managed. The level of development of the eurozone, measured by GDP per capita, is (depending on the method of measurement) 50 to 200 percent higher than Russia's, so the lower rate of growth is not so surprising.

But four times lower? Indeed, this does not sound very good for the West, and especially for Europe. The problem, however, is that when analyzing the development of countries, we do not look at the GDP growth rate achieved in one year, but in a slightly longer horizon. If, for example, we look at the average rate of development of Russia over the past ten years, it turns out that it was 1.5 percent per year... and was lower than the rate of 1.6 percent recorded in the eurozone buried by Putin, than 2.1 percent in the entire European Union and than 2.7 percent in the USA. If the West is really "dying," what can be said about the Russian economy?

This is slander, Putin will probably be outraged. Russia belongs to the group of four large developing economies, once christened BRIC. And the average rate of development of the BRIC group was as much as 5.7 percent per year over the last decade! Well, yes, but the group owed this result to China and India, which were growing at a rate of over 6 percent. And if we are to try to talk about Russia's share in the success of BRIC, we must remember that the Chinese economy constitutes almost 70 percent of the entire group, and the Russian economy only 8 percent. Like that horse and the fly that sits on its back and claims that they pull the cart together.

No big deal, Putin consoled the audience gathered in Minsk. Oil prices have indeed fallen a bit, but if something else happens in the Middle East… Undoubtedly, but after the collapse of the allied regime in Syria and the overpowering of Iran by the Israeli air force, the Russian president has fewer and fewer tools with which he could make “something happen in the Middle East”. And in return he has an outdated, technologically backward economy with capital stolen by oligarchs, whose development depends on the export of raw materials. According to specialists from Harvard University, in terms of the diversity and advancement of the economy (measured by the so-called Economic Complexity Index), Russia is currently in hundredth place in the world, just behind Pakistan and ahead of Senegal.

Putin’s dispute with the West over who will “die” first is reminiscent of Friedrich Nietzsche’s famous dispute with God. “God is dead,” the German philosopher declared, referring to contemporary society’s abandonment of faith and morality sanctioned by divine commandments. But when he himself died, a joke quickly emerged comparing the two tombstones. “1883. God is dead. Nietzsche.” And on the other hand: “1900. Nietzsche is dead. God.”