Trump/Tehran: What now, Brussels and Lisbon?

Donald Trump launched a surprise attack in the early hours of Sunday (European time) and now the Iranian regime promises to retaliate against this act of war by the US, in its declared support for Israel. Regardless of the reasons behind the parties, the geopolitical and economic impact of this decision by the US President, without going through Congress, will have consequences that are currently unpredictable.

What should we expect in moderate realist and pessimist scenarios? What will be Iran’s real military capacity? It has the naval resources to close the Strait of Hormuz, which will have an impact on the price of oil, but will the Tehran regime appeal to the revolt of its diasporas for retaliatory or terrorist attacks, for example in major European cities, in the coming weeks or months, as happened in 2015/16?

What will the UN (and the Security Council) and the atomic energy agency do in practice? And what role will the European Union play, beyond the call for peace and Tweet diplomacy? Will it be able to have a single voice in Brussels or will the interests of the various member states continue to prevail, as has happened with the appeals to Tel Aviv over Gaza? Will the Europe of Ursula/Costa/Kallas be able to play a relevant mediation role in the context of the NATO summit taking place this week in The Hague?

What are the consequences of this US involvement in the Middle East and on the European and global economy, beyond the inevitable rise in oil prices? Are we prepared for a new period of economic stagnation and inflation, known as stagflation? What can small economies that are open to the outside world, such as Portugal, do to prevent and anticipate the shock of severe turbulence?

And what will Russia, China and Saudi Arabia do now, with economic and geopolitical interests in the region and interested parties in the purchase and sale of oil?

If Russia steps up its attacks on Ukraine, what will the international community say and do? And what if China takes advantage of this confusion and the White House's focus on the Middle East to attack Taiwan (is it just a matter of time, I would venture)?

It is worth recalling the lessons of the Second Iraq War, more than 20 years ago (that’s two generations ago, even though it seems like yesterday): how it began, how long it lasted and how it ended. What will happen to Iran after this or future attacks? And what will the balance of power in the region be like if the Israeli leader consolidates and expands his power? What role will countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt play? And how do the ever-vigilant neighbours of the South Caucasus and Central Asia view ancient Persia?

A final note on a warning that is not intended to be alarmist: special attention must be paid to prevention and security in Portugal and the European Union, because we all remember the terrorist attacks in several European cities about ten years ago. Intelligence services and the various police forces must be on high alert and political leaders must not be naive about these scenarios because they have an impact on citizens' lives and the economy. I know what I am talking about, from my professional experience in 2016, when I served the country in a relevant sovereign body.

Just walking or using public transport in cities like Brussels or Paris is enough to see and understand that there are communities of people from the Middle East and North Africa who are far from being integrated. In the case of fully covered women, especially the younger ones, they are clearly not even interested in integrating into the European culture that welcomes them. This is not talk from a supporter of populist forces; it is a fact, without value judgement.

This helps to explain the hostile reaction of the populist right and the far right in several European countries. If there are new attacks by Islamic extremists in tourist areas or on public transport, it is easy to foresee a popular reaction from so-called “traditional” European citizens. And by then it may be too late to regret a new rise of the far right. It is written on Sunday, June 22, 2025, the day of Trump’s attack on Tehran.