Unprofitable mines must be closed, miners must be fired. The coal industry has returned to the crisis of the 1990s.

US President Trump, who declared to the entire world that "Russia's economy is in terrible shape," is certainly familiar with the main indicators of Russian economic performance.

Russian economists are also seeing these data. And rightly so, they began sounding the alarm last year: the short-term impetus for structural change brought about by the surge in defense spending has run its course. By the third quarter of 2025, our country's industry is poised for recession .

Several key industries have collapsed. But the hardest hit is coal. If a doctor were to assess the coal industry's condition, they would have to conclude that the "patient" has lapsed into a coma.

Alexander Grigoriev, Deputy Director General of the Institute for Natural Monopolies Research (INM), calls the current situation in the coal industry a perfect storm.

"This is the best definition of where the coal industry finds itself today. Sanctions, a strong ruble, low prices on foreign markets, and the Central Bank interest rate are just some of the pressures on our coal miners. Remove even one of these factors, and things will be significantly easier for them," says Alexander Grigoryev .

News about the state of the coal industry really does sound like reports from the front:

Danil Tokmin, founder of the analytical agency Alfastat and partner of the consulting company NEFT Research, adds, Last year, a third (27%) of coal mined in Russia became a problem for exporters. This volume was below profitability. Given the continued decline in global prices, the share of potentially profitable exports will decline from 73% to 30-40%.

According to NEFT Research , encouraging results are not expected for the year. Production will decline to 436 million tons, and exports for the first half of the year have already fallen to 189 million tons. This represents a decline of almost 15% since the sanctions on Russian coal were announced following the start of the Cold War.

The Russian coal industry fell into a coma not only due to EU sanctions (for our exporters, the loss of the EU market is a loss of 50 million tons per year), a sharp drop in export prices, but also, of course, demands for discounts from enterprising partners in Asia.

The industry's chronic ills—complex and very expensive logistics, tariffs, and Russian Railways' throughput capacity—have persisted for years, if not decades. And, of course, insufficient investment in fixed assets.

How many breakthrough projects have we heard about in recent years? For example, the development of petrochemicals through coal processing? And how much has changed since Professor Vladimir Burchakov wrote his 2011 scientific report, which stated that most Russian mines operate in hazardous conditions.

It's no surprise that governors of coal-rich regions have begun to acknowledge the critical losses facing their regions. Kemerovo Region Governor Ilya Seredyuk has already reported that, based on the results of the first eight months of the year, Kuzbass lost 12 billion rubles due to declining coal production. By the end of the year, local treasury losses will almost triple, reaching 32 billion.

What does a lost 30 billion mean for a region with a population of 2.5 million? That's almost half of the budget expenditures earmarked for social policy in Kuzbass in 2025 (social expenditures total 70 billion, or 28% of all budget expenditures). And that's almost the entire annual salary fund for school teachers and kindergarten teachers.

Expert Danil Tokmin emphasizes that the industry is critical not only for miners (who employ over 150,000 people and 500 workers in related industries), but also for 31 single-industry towns whose economies are dependent on the coal industry. This means that the income of almost every family in these towns depends on the miners' supply of coal.

Together, they are home to almost one and a half million Russians. In addition to the Kemerovo Region, the republics of Khakassia, Buryatia, Komi, and Sakha, as well as the Zabaykalsky Krai and Irkutsk Region, are particularly at risk.

Let's add to this the almost 20 million Russians who still depend on stove heating.

Nor can we erase the historical memory of when miners' strikes became a symbol of the collapse of the USSR. Back then, around 100,000 miners who had lost their jobs came out to bang their helmets.

However, the government as a whole, and the Ministry of Energy in particular, promise to support the industry. There remains hope for Asia.

"Asia has the potential not only to compensate for the loss of the EU market but also to significantly exceed the volume of our coal exports to Europe in the best years. China and India: behind these giants, the rest of Asia, which is rapidly developing, is unfairly overlooked. The Asia-Pacific market is huge, and our coal will always find buyers there," added Alexander Grigoriev, Deputy General Director of IPEM, adding a fly in the ointment.