Terrifying patterns in past empires make collapse of civilization 'inevitable'

The collapse of human civilisation has become "inevitable", according to a scientist who has studied 5,000 years of history. Dr Luke Kemp, of the University of Cambridge, has identified clear and alarming patterns of inequality, environmental damage, reckless leadership and fragile systems that are driving the collapse of the modern world.

"We can't pinpoint the exact date of the End of the World, but by looking at 5,000 years of civilisation we can see the trajectories we are facing today, which are likely to be self-destructive," Dr Luke Kemp told The Guardian.

Kemp's new book, Goliath's Curse, details the rise and fall of ancient powers, including imperial China, Rome, and the classic Mayan lowland empires. While these collapses were often regional and survivable, Luke Kemp believes the next collapse will be global and devastating.

His research found that every fallen empire shared the same fatal features, including elite-dominated regimes fuelled by inequality and held together by violence, the Daily Mail reports.

Kemp called these societies "Goliaths" - vast, fragile power structures built on hoarded grain, monopolized weapons, and a population stuck in place with nowhere to escape.

"The story is best told as a story of organised crime," says Dr Kemp. "It's one group creating a monopoly on resources by using violence against a particular territory and population."

Kemp has analyzed the rise and fall of more than 400 societies and has come up with a theory that inequality kills civilizations. As elites steal wealth from the masses and destroy the environment, societies become empty shells, vulnerable to war, disease, and collapse. And the cause of collapse, he says, is not simple greed but a small number of people who exhibit the “dark triad” of narcissism, psychopathy, and Machiavellianism.

One of the most telling signs Kemp found in hundreds of failed societies was extreme inequality. In ancient empires, wealth and power were concentrated in the hands of a small elite, leaving the majority impoverished and burdened. Kemp said that growing wealth gaps and corporate monopolies reflect this trend, eroding social cohesion and weakening resilience.

Another worrying parallel is humanity's total dependence on complex global systems, the Daily Mail continues. In the past, people could revert to hunting or farming when governments fell.

Most people now rely on fragile global supply chains, and if they collapse, everything collapses, Kemp warned.

Environmental destruction has also followed the same trajectory. Historical collapses have often been preceded by regional climate shifts of just 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit. Scientists now predict a global temperature increase of 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit or more, as well as massive deforestation and resource depletion.

Kemp also warned that the next collapse could be far more violent, as in the past power struggles were fought with swords or muskets. This is because the world today has more than 10,000 nuclear weapons and far more destructive technologies.

Kemp identified three reasons why the next collapse could be far more destructive than anything humanity has faced before, the Daily Mail continues.

The first is elite violence. In the past, power struggles were fought with swords or muskets. Today, world leaders have access to more than 10,000 nuclear weapons.

The second is our dependence on complex systems. Ancient peoples might have reverted to farming or hunting to survive. But modern societies rely heavily on fragile global supply chains, and if they fail, we will perish with them, said Dr Kemp.

Third, there is the scale of the threats themselves. Historical climate shifts have typically resulted in a one-degree shift. While past collapses have sometimes led to better living conditions, healthier, higher growth, and freer populations after the fall of empire, Kemp warns that in today’s one-global system, there is nowhere to hide. And because history repeats itself, he said, collapse is no longer just a possibility, it is the most likely outcome.