Spain's summer tourism season may be worse than expected

Although the gap with France in visitor numbers is narrowing (approximately 94 million versus 100 million), Spain clearly outpaces its neighbor in per capita spending and total revenue. France 's tourism revenue is €71 billion compared to Spain's €126 billion . However, this sustained growth trend is showing signs of slowing during the summer season.

The main concern is the stagnation in global spending

Exceltur , a collaboration platform comprised of leading Spanish tourism companies, points to uncertainty surrounding trade talks with the US as one of the primary reasons for this slowdown. Concerns are being raised that global consumer spending could come under pressure.

Exceltur 's members, comprising approximately 30 major Iberian -based tourism companies, are forecasting revenue growth of only 2.7 percent in the hotel, airline, restaurant, and similar tourism sectors in the third quarter of 2025. This is significantly lower than the 6.3 percent increase in the same period last year. Meanwhile, growth in the second quarter was 4.5 percent.

A decline in American tourists is expected

Exceltur expects a decline in tourist arrivals from Germany and France . However, visitor numbers from the United Kingdom, the United States , Japan , and China are expected to continue to rise – albeit at a slower rate than in previous periods.

Exceltur Vice President Óscar Perelli stated that a decline in American tourist arrivals has been observed since late 2024 and that this trend will continue through 2025. The changing exchange rate is cited as the primary reason for this decline.

Tourism will account for more than 13 percent of GDP

Exceltur has revised its annual tourism growth forecast down from its previously announced 4 percent to 3.3 percent. However, this figure remains above the national economy's projected overall growth rate of 2.4 percent. Perelli stated, "We initially expected a very good year, but now we're only anticipating a good year." He added that there's a general atmosphere of uncertainty affecting business confidence in the tourism sector.

The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) continues to predict a record-breaking 100 million foreign visitors in 2025. According to Exceltur, tourism revenues are expected to account for approximately 13.2 percent of Spain's GDP this year.

Intense reaction from local people

However, this rapid growth is also causing social tensions in some parts of Spain. Recently, protests have been held in many regions, particularly in the Canary Islands and Barcelona, against the impact of mass tourism. Locals say tourism is negatively impacting their quality of life, particularly due to rising rents and housing difficulties.