Afghanistan: Taliban seeks control of rivers; neighbours fear flow cuts

After decades of war, Afghanistan is moving to assert sovereignty over its water resources, a shift that is testing fragile ties with neighbouring countries. Since taking power in 2021, the Taliban have launched large-scale infrastructure projects, including dams and canals, to harness river flows that spill into Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asia. But as per news agency AFP, these efforts are fuelling disputes, with climate change worsening water shortages across the region.The most contentious initiative is the Qosh Tepa canal, a mega-project designed to irrigate 560,000 hectares of farmland in northern Afghanistan. Experts say it could divert up to 21 per cent of the Amu Darya’s flow, a river already vital for water-stressed Central Asian states. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, backed by Kazakhstan, have raised alarms that the project could further shrink the Aral Sea and destabilise the region’s water-sharing arrangements, which date back to the Soviet era.Water governance specialist Mohd Faizee cautioned and was quoted by AFP as saying, “No matter how friendly the tone is now, at some point there will be consequences for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan when the canal starts operating.”Taliban officials, however, insist the canal will not cause significant harm. Project manager Sayed Zabihullah Miri was cited by AFP as saying that the Amu Darya has “an abundance of water, especially when it floods and glacial meltwater flows into it”. They argue the project is critical to boosting food security in a country where climate-driven crop failures and humanitarian crises remain widespread.Iran, Afghanistan’s western neighbour, is the only country with a formal water-sharing treaty, signed in 1973 over the Helmand river. But the accord has never been fully honoured. Tehran frequently accuses Kabul of restricting flows through upstream dams, especially during droughts. The Taliban maintain that water scarcity, worsened by climate change, leaves them unable to release more.A report by the Afghanistan Analysts Network noted that Afghan authorities also believe they have long been denied their fair share of Helmand waters due to poor management and political neglect. Meanwhile, disputes also simmer over the Harirud basin, which flows into Iran and Turkmenistan, where Afghanistan recently inaugurated the Pashdan dam. Analysts say reduced security risks after the war could accelerate such projects, reshaping regional water dynamics.To the east, Afghanistan shares the Kabul river basin with Pakistan, which eventually feeds into the Indus. Unlike Iran, no treaty exists between the two neighbours. While water disputes have not dominated their rocky bilateral relations, Kabul’s attempts to revive old river projects and build new ones could trigger friction.Yet, Afghanistan’s financial struggles and lack of technical expertise mean most large-scale projects will take years to complete. This delay may ease immediate diplomatic concerns, but for Afghans grappling with severe water shortages in the capital and beyond, the wait could deepen suffering.Afghanistan’s water disputes cannot be separated from the worsening climate emergency. According to the UN’s International Organisation for Migration (IOM), nearly five million people were affected by floods, droughts, and other climate shocks in early 2025, with almost 400,000 displaced. “Crop failure, dry pastures and vanishing water sources are pushing rural communities to the edge,” the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation warned in July.Villagers in the north were quoted by AFP as saying that they were pinning hopes on the Qosh Tepa canal to revive farming, though its completion is still more than a year away. In contrast, communities in western Herat have watched the Harirud river run dry, forcing families who were deported from Iran to return to barren land with little to farm.Meanwhile, extreme rainfall has added another layer of crisis. Warmer temperatures mean heavier downpours, often triggering devastating flash floods. In Maidan Wardak, a community leader said, “I’m around 54 years old, and we have never experienced problems like this before.”Taliban officials admit their efforts fall short. Energy and water minister Abdul Latif Mansoor recently conceded that while canal and dam projects are underway, “the measures we have taken so far are not enough”. Limited funding, international isolation and restrictive governance have left Afghanistan struggling to cope with climate shocks, even as it faces one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.For millions of Afghans, everything now comes down to water, too little in times of drought, too much during floods, as the Taliban’s push for control over rivers becomes a defining issue for the country and its neighbours alike.