Allies in a Dangerous Neighborhood: Why the Trump-Lee Summit Matters

OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE -- In December 1952, President-elect Dwight D. Eisenhower visited South Korea for a first-time presidential summit as the brutal war with North Korea raged. Now, President Donald Trump will soon welcome newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae Myung to Washington for another important summit between the two allies.

Mr. Eisenhower was determined to bring an end to the Korean War, that took the lives of tens of thousands of U.S. and South Korean military personnel and civilians. On July 27, 1953, the Korean Armistice Agreement was signed, halting the fighting, although the war continues till this day. The result was a 2.5-mile buffer zone, separating the two Koreas.

The decades that followed the Korean War were tense, with a belligerent North Korea continuing to threaten and provoke South Korea. Despite the provocations, South Korea was able to develop into a model liberal democracy that is now the thirteenth largest GDP in the world.

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The summit of these two recently elected presidents is timely. During the past seven months, Mr. Trump has shown the world that he is a proactive peacemaker, determined to help resolve conflicts afflicting a growing number of countries. We saw this with Pakistan and India, with Armenia and Azerbaijan, with Thailand and Cambodia and with the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, and with Serbia and Kosovo and Egypt and Ethiopia. Mr. Trump’s efforts to bring an end to the war in Ukraine and in Gaza continue.

Indeed, this will be an opportune time for Mr. Lee to brief Mr. Trump on his vision for South Korea, both economically and geopolitically. And now that the tariff issue has been resolved with the U.S., the second largest trading partner with South Korea, there should be sufficient time to address the nuclear threat from North Korea.

The Lee Administration has reached out to North Korea, making clear that the new president wants a good relationship but the response from the North has been negative, with the powerful sister of Kim Jong Un, Kim Yo Jung, making clear that North Korea still views South Korea as the enemy, eschewing peaceful reunification of the two Koreas.

Mr. Trump has a special relationship with Kim Jong Un, after the 2018 and 2019 summits in Singapore and Hanoi – and a symbolic meeting in the DMZ so discussing the possibility of Mr. Trump reaching out to Mr. Kim will no doubt be discussed. This would also be a good time for Mr. Lee to explain what his administration will do, in addition to recently stopping broadcasts into North Korea and taking down loudspeakers along the border, to improve relations with North Korea.

North Korea’s new strategic relationship with Russia must be of considerable concern. Their mutual defense treaty with Russia and North Korean troops in Russia participating in Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine is of concern, as is the ballistic missiles, artillery shells and other weaponry the North is providing to Moscow. In return, of course, Russia is providing North Korea with satellite, nuclear, missile and other assistance.

Indeed, Mr. Kim is building more nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them, with the intent to reach the U.S. Their road mobile, solid fuel Hwasong/19, an intercontinental missile, is capable of reaching the whole of the U.S. This is the North Korea we’re dealing with. It’s the North Korea that views South Korea as the enemy, previously threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons against the South.

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What should we be expecting from today’s North Korea? The reality is that North Korea’s new relationship with Russia could embolden Mr. Kim and incite him to do something provocative against South Korea, which we’ve seen in the past. And it could escalate quickly.

Given the threat from North Korea, the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea are a trip wire and help to deter North Korea from taking militarily action against the South. North Korea previously acted recklessly, when they didn’t have nuclear weapons or a mutual defense treaty with Russia. It’s important to remember that U.S. extended nuclear deterrence commitments are a core element of our allied relationship with South Korea. This summit will permit the U.S. to double down on these nuclear umbrella commitments.

Currently, South Korea spends close to $1 billion to defray some of the cost for the stationing of the 28,500 U.S. troops in the South. That amount, no doubt, will also be discussed.

The list of issues up for discussion is long. But permitting the new Lee Government to articulate its approach to developments in the South and East China Seas and possible developments with Taiwan will ensure clarity on a myriad of issues affecting both our countries.

This column by Cipher Brief Expert Joseph Detrani was first published in The Washington Times.

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