Luisa Gonzalez wants to be Ecuador’s president. Will Correa weigh her down?

Quito, Ecuador – Ecuador is preparing for a high-stakes presidential run-off on April 13, as voters choose between two final candidates: leftist Luisa Gonzalez and centre-right incumbent Daniel Noboa.

The election comes amid political unrest, economic turmoil and rising gang violence, with Ecuador now among the most violent countries in Latin America.

Gonzalez, who is running on a progressive platform, could become Ecuador’s first elected female president — an historic milestone. But her candidacy has been plagued by questions about her longstanding ties to former President Rafael Correa, her political mentor.

Correa is a polarising figure who continues to divide Ecuador. To his supporters, he was a charismatic champion of the working class who stood up to the foreign oil companies eager to exploit Ecuador's natural resources.

To his detractors, he was a symbol of corruption and broken promises, forced into exile after a court found him guilty of accepting bribes.

Still, Gonzalez remains close to Correa, so much so that she even posted a video in honour of his birthday, during the final weekend before the run-off.

"Happy birthday, dear Rafael Correa," Gonzalez wrote in the caption, as the video showed the two laughing and hugging. "May God bless you and guide you always."

But experts say Gonzalez's tight bond with Correa could be a double-edged sword, generating allegiance in some voting blocs while alienating others.

“She’s walking a tightrope,” said Caroline Avila, a political communications analyst and professor at the University of Cuenca. “Too close to Correa, she loses moderates. Too far, and she risks losing her base.”

Even small fluctuations in support could tilt the election. Experts believe the run-off may come down to relatively small margins, given how tight the first round of voting was.

The general election took place on February 9. But the outcome was a shocker.

President Noboa had rallied his supporters with the slogan "Una Sola Vuelta" — one single round. His intention was to deliver a landslide in the first vote. But he failed to meet the 50-percent threshold needed to prevent a run-off.

Instead, he earned 44 percent of the vote. So did Gonzalez. Noboa had an edge of only about 16,000 ballots, in a country of 13.7 million registered voters.

The second round is likewise expected to be a nail-biter. A poll this month from the Ecuadorian firm Comunicaliza found Gonzalez with 49.7 percent support, to Noboa's 50.3. Other polls showed her slightly ahead.

Part of Gonzalez's strategy has been to set herself apart from Noboa, the 37-year-old heir to a banana industry fortune. At a televised debate in late March, she highlighted their class differences in a segment about healthcare accessibility.

"Maybe it doesn't matter to you because you travel in your private plane to New York and Miami, but it does matter to the rest of us," she said.

Gonzalez, a lawyer, was born in 1977 in Quito and raised in Manabí, a coastal province that has become a stronghold for Correa's governing philosophy, correísmo.

She identifies as "montubia", part of a mestizo group from the area.

In her campaign messages, she often highlights her humble roots, saying she grew up with limited means in the rural town of Canuto. Her election, she says, would be a victory for other working-class people.

"On April 13, Manabi will raise its voice with dignity," she posted before the run-off vote. "No more contempt for our humble people, no more exclusion or abandonment."

But her connection to Correa has also emerged as another vital part of her backstory.

Correa gave Gonzalez her first national political roles, after she switched from the Christian Social Party to his Citizen Revolution movement.

During Correa's three terms as president, from 2007 to 2017, she held several public positions, including in the ministries of labour and public administration.

But controversy plagued Correa's decade in office. Critics blasted him for attacking independent journalism. Indigenous allies voiced betrayal at his development projects and protest crackdowns.

And after his tenure, in 2020, a court found him guilty of accepting millions in bribes in exchange for government contracts. Correa currently lives in exile in Belgium, though he maintains his innocence. He faces eight years in prison, should he return to Ecuador.

Critics have seized upon that history to paint Gonzalez as an extension of Correa's enduring influence.

"This Sunday, we are ending this failed revolution," Noboa said at an event this week, referencing both Correa's Citizen Revolution party and Gonzalez's campaign.

But Gonzalez has dismissed the attacks on her relationship with Correa as a diversion.

“Rafael Correa will be my adviser — not the president,” Gonzalez said. Her campaign did not return Al Jazeera's request for comment.

Still, many activist leaders remain cautious about her candidacy.

“She represents a paradox,” said Sinchi Gomez, an Indigenous communications expert and activist with the Kitu Kara people. “There’s symbolic progress in having a woman near the presidency, but we haven’t seen a real shift in her political project.”

Critics have indeed pointed to a continuum linking Gonzalez's platform and Correa's.

Her campaign has pledged a return to Correa-style spending on social programmes, infrastructure and security, an appealing prospect in rural areas where, for many voters, correísmo means state support.

"Back then, we had work and dignity," said Alfredo Reinoso, a 34-year-old Gonzalez supporter from the capital Quito. "Now it’s just fear — no jobs, no safety, no future."

Experts also point out that Gonzalez has benefitted from Correa’s loyal base of support and the electoral machinery of Citizen Revolution — still one of Ecuador’s most organised political forces.

A single mother, Gonzalez ultimately made a name for herself in Ecuador's male-dominated political arena as a leading voice in Citizen Revolution. In 2021, she was won a seat in the National Assembly, her first elected position.

Then, in 2023, she became the Citizen Revolution's candidate for president, in a race she narrowly lost to Noboa.

While Gonzalez could become Ecuador’s first elected female president this year, she shares Correa's embrace of conservative social values. As a lawmaker, for instance, she voted against the legalisation of abortion in cases of rape.

“The left wants a modern alternative, but what they see is a mix of conservative values and redistributive economics,” said Avila, the professor. “For many feminists and younger voters, that combination feels incoherent.”

Gonzalez has also signalled she would recognise the socialist government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, an ally of Correa's.

That position, however, has raised doubts about her commitment to democratic principles. Maduro, after all, has been accused of rigging elections and arresting his political adversaries.

Still, even voters who reject Correa's legacy might be inclined to vote for Gonzalez out of disillusionment with the status quo.

President Noboa has faced criticism for human rights abuses and executive overreach during his short term in office. Some even say he has flashed an authoritarian streak, just like Correa.

Voting is compulsory in Ecuador, and voters demonstrated their displeasure at the polls in the first round of this year's presidential race. Null and blank votes made up nearly 9 percent of the total ballots cast — a sign of deep voter dissatisfaction.

Political consultant Jacobo Garcia believes this segment of the electorate may lean towards Gonzalez, not because of her campaign, but due to growing frustration with Noboa.

“What could tip the balance,” he said, “isn’t support for Gonzalez, but the perception that Noboa’s campaign has lost steam and made critical mistakes.”

Some Indigenous leaders who once clashed with Correa are also backing Gonzalez for similar reasons.

“The alternative is worse,” Gomez, the Kitu Kara activist, said. “This is about defending our territories and lives from a government that has shown open disregard for Indigenous rights.”

In late March, the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) — the country's largest Indigenous organisation — also struck an agreement with Gonzalez.

It endorsed her, on the condition that she accepted a 25-point platform that included pledging to repeal Noboa-era decrees that CONAIE felt were anti-Indigenous.

“We’re not joining a campaign. We’re demanding action on Indigenous rights, environmental justice, and an end to criminalising defenders,” said Gomez.

She emphasised that the decision followed months of internal consultation across Indigenous communities — a strategic choice rooted in resistance, not alignment.

“We’ve chosen who we’d rather confront. If she wins, the demands are clear, and the response will be mobilisation.”

But Avila, the professor from the University of Cuenca, said such alliances will be key to any government Gonzalez might form if elected. Currently, Ecuador's fiscal crisis and divided legislature could stall her agenda.

“Campaigns are built on hope, but governance requires coalitions,” said Avila. “The real challenge will begin the day after the election.”