4.8M new homes need to be built over next 10 years to restore affordability, CMHC says

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) says up to 4.8 million new homes will need to be built over the next decade to restore affordability levels last seen in 2019, based on projected demand.

The national housing agency released its latest supply gaps estimate report today, which says between 430,000 and 480,000 new housing units are needed per year across the ownership and rental markets by 2035.

That would represent around double the current pace of home construction in Canada, with 90,760 housing starts recorded so far this year, through May.

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CMHC deputy chief economist Aled ab Iorwerth says doubling the pace of housing construction is achievable, "but not without a significantly larger and modernized workforce, more private investment, less regulation, fewer delays and lower development costs."

In 2023, CMHC estimated Canada would need to build an additional 3.5 million housing units by 2030, on top of 2.3 million that were already projected to be built by that year, to reach affordability levels seen in 2004.

The agency's latest update also includes regional breakdowns, which show Ontario and Nova Scotia have the most significant housing supply gaps by province, while Montreal faces the largest gap of any major city.